In fact, I'm here to tell you that I don't see a single consumer-/small-business-level binary architecture that will have a longer longevity than AMD64.
Does the IA32 binary architecture that has been around since 1985 count as "at least a decade" ?
The life of AMD and its AMD64 may be very short lived.
AMD has reported negative cash flows totaling $1.1 billion in the past four quarters. It will add to that dismal performance in Q2. AMD can not continue for long to loose cash at that rate before it will enter bankruptcy.
AMD's Q1 2003 earnings report shows about $800,000,000 in cash and $1,790,000,000 in debt. Now, AMD has claimed they were on their way to cutting their costs so that they could break even at $800,000,000 in quarterly revenue.
If AMD only has $615,000,000 in revenue this quarter, and 800 million is break even - then AMD will have a net cash loss of about $185,000,000 !!
That should bring AMD's CASH position down to $615,000,000 - and their debt will still be $1.79 Billion. That's a 3 to 1 debt to cash ratio, and the cash is dropping at about $150 million to $200 million per quarter.
My guess is that AMD's creditors are going to panic when AMD's cash drops below $500,000,000 - and that should occur in Q3 of this year - just a few weeks/months away.
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