Replies to post #2770 on Advanced ID (RFID Technology) (fka AIDO)

[FrankHillIndianStar]

You need to attach probabilities to the upside & downside impact estimates.


Just throwing some #s out there for demonstration:

$2 price X 5% probability = 0.10
20 cents X 50% probability = 0.10
30 cents X 45% probability = 0.135

Adding them up = 33.5 cents, not too far off our close.

The probability of that $2 price goes down with each questionable act.