News Focus
News Focus
Followers 2
Posts 213
Boards Moderated 0
Alias Born 04/22/2005

Re: rfid5 post# 2770

Monday, 05/22/2006 4:46:17 PM

Monday, May 22, 2006 4:46:17 PM

Post# of 12642
You need to attach probabilities to the upside & downside impact estimates.


Just throwing some #s out there for demonstration:

$2 price X 5% probability = 0.10
20 cents X 50% probability = 0.10
30 cents X 45% probability = 0.135

Adding them up = 33.5 cents, not too far off our close.

The probability of that $2 price goes down with each questionable act.

Discover What Traders Are Watching

Explore small cap ideas before they hit the headlines.

Join Today