You need to attach probabilities to the upside & downside impact estimates. Just throwing some #s out there for demonstration: $2 price X 5% probability = 0.10 20 cents X 50% probability = 0.10 30 cents X 45% probability = 0.135 Adding them up = 33.5 cents, not too far off our close. The probability of that $2 price goes down with each questionable act.