Replies to post #121159 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mlsoft]

nspolar...

BGO is doing ok so far, and the gold stocks are most certainly outperforming the metal itself - I was shocked this afternoon when GG hit 12.45 (a new high for this move) late this afternoon on two very large blocks. Obviously, the stocks are anticipating that the $USD will take some gas when AG cuts next week and from the continued printing of ever more bucks by Greenspan.

The flip side of that is that da boyz definitely took a shot and drove gold down and the dollar up, and it continues again tonight with a solid ramp on the $USD and gold off a bit more. There is only so much of that that the gold stocks can take, so there is certainly some risk near term for a pullback unless the $USD can reverse into the FOMC meeting, which is what I would have expected.

As for the SA golds, I have no problem buying them for a trade, but they will not be a part of my core gold holdings because of the political risk. That does not mean I will be correct, it just means I am not willing to assume the additional risk. History tells me that white owned businesses in Africa eventually end up under new ownership, and the old owners do not fare well in the transition. I did quite well with DROOY, HMY, and GFI before the political problem arose, so I do not feel bad about leaving them alone now.

Good luck to you - hope your DROOY and the others do great.

mlsoft

[basserdan]

*** Gold related post ***

nspolar,
Do you consider this to be cause for concern?


S African Miner's Union, Industry In Wage Talk Deadlock
Thursday June 19, 8:47 am ET

JOHANNESBURG -(Dow Jones)- Wage negotiations between South Africa's National Union of Mineworkers and the industry-backed Chamber of Mines are in deadlock after union representatives ended two-day talks Wednesday.

Representatives from both sides met on June 17-18 to discuss wage demands as well as annual leave, retirement funds, housing and accommodation, job grading and health care.

"The two days have yielded nothing. In fact, they were a waste of our time because the Chamber did not move at all. So its back to square one and we are sending everything back to our branches and regions, including the laughable wage offers," said Dion Boqwana, the NUM's chairman at the negotiations.

Gwede Manatshe, NUM General-Secretary said the only development in the negotiations had been a 0.5% increase in wages from the gold producers to 7% from 6.5%.

The NUM said it was clear that the gold producers had no intention of finding a speedy resolution to the negotiations, and preferred instead to play a game of brinkmanship with the unions.

"The union cannot be expected to agree to anything lower than the inflation rate," the NUM said.

"In our view, this disgusting offer by the Chamber indicates its disregard for the lowest paid employees who produce at the risk of their lives in order to create wealth for others," said the NUM.

South Africa's benchmark inflation rate, or CPIX, slowed to 7.7% on the year in May, down from 8.5% in April.

The miner's opening gambit had been for a 20% hike in wages but the industry said the demands were unrealistic.

South Africa's biggest gold miners - Harmony , Gold Fields and AngloGold - warned recently that as long as the rand remains strong, then future earnings will be severely hit.

The gold producers fear profits could slip by as much as 5% even if they settle for a 10% increase. Wages account for 50% of their total costs.

-By Adam Aljewicz, Dow Jones Newswires; [phone]; [e-mail]

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030619/0847000649_1.html

Regards,
Dan