Replies to post #7265 on Niocorp Developments Ltd (NB)

[LCP77]

Wild guesses:

We won't know hard numbers until the feasibility report is done.

Let's assume:
$500MM all in cap ex.
The big question is how much of the mine financing will be debt, offtakes, creative arrangements (Mark Smith magic), and equity. I'm going to wild guess that with some creative options and the price stability of this commodity that NB will need to raise $100MM of equity. You of course can and should pick your own number.

I believe that they are looking at 7500 tonnes/yr of planned production. 7,500,000 kg's. They should make about $150MM/yr.

This might make the after tax NPV in the $1.25B range with a reasonable discount rate of 6% (a bit less than the 7.5% often used in mine financing due to the NB price stability). This also assumes a tax holiday that I believe the company is eligible for in the first several years.

So if they have 300MM shares out at the start of production the NPV/sh would be $4 ish. Of course you don't often get full NPV in the markets but based on my wild ass guesses we do have a lot of upside.

That and $2 bucks will get you a coffee!

[Husker1854]

OK… this is really just a guess. A major question is the metallurgy and what will be the cost of refining the niobium. It could be cheaper or more expensive than what the other three mines that produce this stuff are. Apparently they need a different process than what the other mines use. If somebody has any ideas on this please share, this is my biggest question. My gut tells me it will be actually cheaper.

Dilution: If they qualify for German government loans, remember this is also a strategic metal for the EU, then I think it would be a subordinated loan that would serve kind of like equity and give the bankers more comfort on the larger loan. Perhaps 50 million of additional equity to build out? Perhaps I am too optimistic about needed equity. In this way, equity dilution would be lower, but there will still need to be some.

From just my gut, I think someone will probably try to buy the project for 600 ish… (after metallurgy) or 3.25 isn a share? Production in late 2017, so in two years 4.50 ish? Five years 7.50 ish? Don't really know, but I think up from here.

[inversor86]

F2, the mine cost ballpark that I have heard multiple times is 3-400 million. I've only time ever heard the words upwards of 400 million on here in the past from people who were not shareholders just being DB's.