Wild guesses:
We won't know hard numbers until the feasibility report is done.
Let's assume:
$500MM all in cap ex.
The big question is how much of the mine financing will be debt, offtakes, creative arrangements (Mark Smith magic), and equity. I'm going to wild guess that with some creative options and the price stability of this commodity that NB will need to raise $100MM of equity. You of course can and should pick your own number.
I believe that they are looking at 7500 tonnes/yr of planned production. 7,500,000 kg's. They should make about $150MM/yr.
This might make the after tax NPV in the $1.25B range with a reasonable discount rate of 6% (a bit less than the 7.5% often used in mine financing due to the NB price stability). This also assumes a tax holiday that I believe the company is eligible for in the first several years.
So if they have 300MM shares out at the start of production the NPV/sh would be $4 ish. Of course you don't often get full NPV in the markets but based on my wild ass guesses we do have a lot of upside.
That and $2 bucks will get you a coffee!
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