Market Data 
Markets
Replies to post #187143 on Biotech Values
02/06/15 4:36 PM
Still amazed Olysio has held up so well (NRx as not really declined for weeks) with new all-orals around. Don't get it.
**Harvoni/Sovaldi IMS data week-ended 2/6/15 was just released and showed continued growth in Harvoni, with relative
stability in Sovaldi.
**Harvoni NRx are up another 2% this week to 3,846, with an unusually high uptick in TRx (+7% to 8,396) which may
represent some variability. In the meantime, Sovaldi remains steady, with NRx just slightly down at 751, we believe
reflecting the ~$3B steady-state run-rate for U.S. GT-2/3 usage.
**Plugging these numbers into our proprietary projection tool, at current run-rate, Harvoni U.S. sales look to track at
~$9.4B. This assumes a 46% discount rate--actual discount may be higher, since the cited discount applied to Harvoni
and Sovaldi both and Sovaldi likely less discounted, or may be lower if GILD has been rebating on a per-patient rather
than per-pill basis. The $9.4B assumes a 1.5% week-over-week increase in new patient starts for the remainder of the
quarter, then a ~1% weekly decline in new weekly new patient starts for the remainder of the year to account for the
waning early-year bolus of patients gaining access as well as competition. Adding $3.2B for U.S. Sovaldi and $3.2B for
ex-U.S. HCV sales would project total HCV sales of $15.9B.
**Were new patient start run-rate to remain flat through end-2015, our projector suggests there would be ~177K new
patient starts on Harvoni this year via IMS data - which given IMS's 67% capture rate could represent over 250K actual
new patients treated - potentially leading to global HCV sales of $16.4B.
**BOTTOM LINE: Continued steady growth in new patient starts on Harvoni remains encouraging and continues to
demonstrate good growth/durability of HCV market thus far; we believe GILD is undervalued relative to peers even with
the longer-term HCV uncertainties.
AI
