Replies to post #187511 on Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

From Wells:

**IMS data for the week ending 2/20/15 (President's Week) became available today.
**Harvoni NRx, what we view as the most important measure of uptake, were approximately flat this week, at 4,154 vs.
last week's 4,277 - impressively steady, in our view, given the holiday week. TRx were 8,859, compared to last week's
8,832.
**Sovaldi did decline a bit this week, with NRx at 674, vs. last week's 743, though we assume this is reflective of the
holiday week especially given Sovaldi's longer availability.
**Overall, assuming a 1.5% average week over week increase in new patient starts between now and the end of March,
with approximately a 1% average decline in new patient starts each week for the rest of the year, GILD's global
sales would be tracking at $18.4B ($12.6B Harvoni + $2.6B Sovaldi U.S. + $3.22 ex-U.S. HCV sales), which we believe is
above consensus. This assumes that IMS captures ~68% of actual patient use, as per our estimated tracking from 4Q14;
this is a key variable, since if one assumes IMS tracking is at 100%, it would put total WW HCV sales projecting at
$14.3B.
**BOTTOM LINE: Solid Harvoni growth especially given the holiday week; though it will be important to track how robust
the uptake remains for the rest of the year, we believe GILD's multiple continues to overly discount medium-term HCV
uncertainties.