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TheMonolith

12/03/14 1:08 PM

#80153 RE: Citrati #80152

Thank you for the suggestions! I believe deflation is going to be the driver of any potential large decline. I think your suggestion may well out perform, but I think they'll still decline. I guess cash/treasuries will be king in the scenario I'm painting. Problem is the risk and reward of treasuries just isn't there.
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BioHedge

12/03/14 1:45 PM

#80160 RE: Citrati #80152

Citrati, great list (other than the multinationals - I'm staying away as the rest of the world is in a lot worse shape than the US).

I've been taking larger and larger positions in CTIX because I'm gambling that it will stay stable and even go up even if the market goes down. Cancer and bacteria doesn't slow down if the economy does and history has proven those suffering from medical conditions will spend for health care (no matter the economic environment).

Certainly a bad economy doesn't help CTIX but if the market drops 50%, I'd expect CTIX to drop to a lesser degree and recover much more quickly. Hopefully by the time we have a correction, CTIX will be at a significantly higher level which will reduce risk as well.

To answer many of the PMs I've received (and public posts), I'm adding to positions in the following:
- Commodities (anything that is currently despised - miners, oil, metals, etc)
- Health care (those with strong efficiencies and big piles of cash)
- Bio-tech (but very, very selective - must be CTIX like i.e., big upside with real technology and trustworthy management)
- Waiting for the market to be pregnant to set up additional shorts/puts in tech and consumer centric plays.

BTW, we're not going to face deflation that the government is harping about, inflation is our real problem (just as anyone who owns a business).