Replies to post #22470 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Pyrrhonian]

AF looked the fool and the shorts lost huge when DNDN's trial results showed it extended patient's survival significantly (btw, for anyone reading--when 'significantly' is said in academia, it doesn't mean "by a whole lot!" like it's used casually--it means simply a statistically significant result, implying nothing about the extent of the effect). Then much later the vaccine was finally approved (http://www.dailyfinance.com/2010/04/29/dendreons-prostate-cancer-vaccine-approved-shares-soar-before/). Pretty sure that's what he's referring to.

At that point a handful may have seen how competitive the landscape truly was, and once Zytiga came along (soon after), Provenge was blown away before they could even ramp up manufacturing capability. Ultimately, a therapy that doesn't sell isn't worth anything, regardless of approval. Of course, that is where Provenge and DCVax-L part ways, and at that by 100 miles (not to mention extent of effect above SOC likely being much greater with DCVax-L).

[froggmister]

Hey flipper,
Yes, I understand that DCVax and Provenge have differences, but you have to admit they have more similarities than differences when you consider the landscape of cancer treatments; as for Dendreon vs. NWBIO I would say there some key differences that I highlighted, but many others as well.

I have had patience -- NWBO on my watchlist for 12 years before taking a position a few months ago and adding this week.

My investing theory of action is that the "moneyball" opportunity in investing, especially in the complex biotech world, is that there are some really smart amateur analysts that not only know more than the paid analysts but engage in real debate, without climbing the ladder of inference based on bias, and are open to really facing the bear case. That paid off big for me in DNDN, but I'm not one to pretend I always get it right, as evidence by my current underwater position in NAVB and my underperforming position in ARRY. I mostly lurk (as my profile makes clear) as I am neither a doctor or bio statistician, but I do recognize expertise when I see it, more often than not.

This is an outstanding board and I have learned a ton, and am grateful regardless of how this investment turns out.
Frogg