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PacificNW

11/05/14 12:03 AM

#22468 RE: RRRichmond #22467

A plausible explanation:
These major institutions and hedge funds are investing in many many companies while you are invested in only one.
They are not doing the DD as you surmise and are listening to the popular and supposedly knowledgeable/credible AF while you are listening to Pyrr & Flip who aren't known.
If they lose on this one investment and win on most of their others then by diversification they still win, it isn't crucial or important to them while if you lose on your investment it is a total wipeout. They already made money on the buys while you didn't so they are already ahead.
So to me it is all perspective, you are inserting your feelings. intentions, experiences in what these major institutions and hedge funds are doing.....you can't do that and make it make sense.
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Pyrrhonian

11/05/14 8:44 AM

#22471 RE: RRRichmond #22467

I think it should surprise and alarm everyone who thoughtlessly throws their hard earned money at a lazy manager who reads off a list of the latest best performing mutual funds (who will then make the list for the worst in the next six months), and puts it all in the top three. They're just after the fees.

Then you take those funds themselves and look at their small team of analysts, who use broad strokes to add or remove a security from their list of many hundreds. Sure, you'll perform at a consistent pace and remove much of the risk, but for every 5 good companies you are invested in, you are also in 3 bad ones.

That's why there are some very select hedge funds out there who only take around 100 clients, and only diversify into 40-60 companies, all very thoroughly vetted. This is proper diversification, imo. The Bogleheads love what I would term "over-diversification," and they can neither see nor do anything about market trends. Neither can they be select in their choices. I don't personally believe that is smart investing, though clearly most disagree with me (including every manager in control of your 401k).

But to be specific, yes, the short interest actually grew from 8 mil to 8.3 mil over the last downturn into the upper $3s. There is no logical way to explain that move, and why the short positions taken up in the $6s didn't cover there. The illogical but likely correct explanation is that the short interest here are not as "smart" as you think. They use broad statistics to determine which companies to short and which not to, and in general these stats will return an overall profit to them. NWBO is a very likely outlier to the left of their profit median, in the loss portion of the curve.

$.02
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Rkmatters

11/05/14 9:02 AM

#22474 RE: RRRichmond #22467

A fun card fable based on partial facts, mixed in with some market prediction and my glass-filled imagination. Enjoy ;)

The strong-hand position at the table is changing. NW initially was playing the cards dealt to them - the hand that generally reserved for the small biotechs. The 'you'll win this hand, if we let you win this hand' kind of manipulation. Retail shorts (some acronyms you'll remember, like LTT) and strong longs - notably, Pyrr, Flip, Evaluate and a few others long-timers, Diamond, John and Red players - each occupy a chair at the NWBO dealers' table. A bunch of HFs with bunch of chips, still undecided about getting in the game; but, a greedy bunch, they're still betting odds against the retail short and long players. The SoS analysts, the social media, Senti and Xenia moderators are also at the table - lots of AF spectacular noise. Up until now the MMs are controlling cards, sitting at the head of the table. But a fun thing just happened -a party walked in, a bunch of different scientists and doctors, all from distinguishing hospitals, around the world locations. And as such, the mood around the room begins to change - the air filled with excitement and anticipation. With this last raise of financing, there's lots of clinical trial money at the table. Another round of shuffling, the next hand is getting ready to be played. Perfectly timed, with an abstract validation and the PR release of the start of HE revenue, it is clear 'the time for NW is now'. And with that media buzz, NW moved from the players seat to the dealers' chair, and the MM moved one seat over. NW now equipped with a dealers' dream-card deck, and some good publication. With each dealt hand, a bigger and bigger crowd starts to circle around the table. One Germany patient stops by the room, others waiting to get in. Soon, some more and yet again, some more patients with different diagnosis from PI/II and PIII. And some of their friends, family members are also their too, to either bet or watch, like RK, DoGood and Hodge. Until the room is fully enrolled. The HFs have no choice but to start themselves to take a seat at the crowded table. The observing crowd starts walking around, one by one, looking at all the player's cards. They don't like the bloggers hand, they move on. That is, until they line up behind the retail players. They lean-in to support the back of the NW dealers' chair from ever failing. Even the DMC, the WP, CREW, and the FDA and SEC is looming around the room corner, peaking in. And one by one, the rest of the retail investors begins to see it and they begin to believe the positives they're been told all along. Due-diligence in hand, all those at the table now are aware of all the previous moves of the short-sighted players, including the ambulance chasers. NWBO's cards soon-to-be revealed, one catalyst in their hand, after another. A long synergistic-affect that destined to fool all of the Sharks, of their investors' money. What was clear to some early on, begins to become significantly crystal-clear to all - the NW dealer has dealt retail longs the makings of a winning hand. A Royal Flush - the best hand ever! It's now going to get harder and harder for MMs and the HFs to bluff any of us to fold or throw in our cards. Knowing this, we raise the bet - fist clinched of our cards, ready to talk smack to the commentators. The HFs and their paid guns fidget, as they see the makings of our cards - but match our bet anyway, as they're a cocky dumb bunch. The retail shorts seeing the pot go higher, well, understandably they begin to want out. More chips on the table for us. The MMs go along and slowly begins to watch momentum change. The pot just keeps grows bigger and bigger over the night. The early retail longs eventually built enough cash cushion to sit back and enjoy a few hands out, with no need to ever leave the table. Nice refreshing grapefruit drinks are served to them there, courtesy of AF's prior manipulation. No worries, more and more new retail longs as well as some Russell fund managers too see the bright story now. They decide join the table as the HFs empty out the retail short seats, now squeezed of their money. Some new HFs decide to bet on the retail long hand now too. They see up is the only way to go, as the truth is written in the science cards. And eventually the MM can no longer deny it, they want to get back in the dealers' chair, and get in on all this fun activity. They nicely ask NW, and NW, well they oblige with long awaited GBM halt news. But this time when the MMs deal the cards, we're no longer playing poker. Instead we're playing Black Jack. And sure enough, with the exception of those late to join the ride-the-wave-up party HFs. most everyone left at the table begins to win with this new dealer. The kind of vaccine MA winnings that would envy thestreet. It's the best played ihub hand ever. The crowded room begins to see what is happening and the world watching goes wild. This scientific win means more to them then money. It's a win for mankind. Drinks for everyone and anyone! There's to be a party unlike no other. The story ends so well, the rest of the card table fable goes directly on to live happily and healthily after.

...

But there is one sore loser in all of this. The only one not happy is the political science drink-runner who was asked to leave the room to get a boatload of grapefruit, as there is soon to be an investment yacht party. He, of course, isn't invited. Him and his kind move on in defeat and humiliation, with a hot trail of lawyers and SEC following behind on their backs. AF finally falls down, like the waste that he is, in spectacular fashion, alongside the cartons of grapefruit trash from our booze-cruise. No beer ever in prison for him, instead he's served grapefruit juice for life.

The end.
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TOB

11/05/14 10:29 AM

#22488 RE: RRRichmond #22467

How is it possible that numerous entities are risking the coverage of 8 to 12 million shares given the "telegraphed" information that is available to all in the marketplace. - RRRichmond



They aren't necessarily naked short MWBO. They could be hedged with options or warrants.

Beyond that, who can say what information certain sellers or buyers consider important? Some trade only charts, or only fundamentals, their opinion of both.

They also can be wrong. Many Hedge Funds lose money, or only marginally outperform the indices. Even the winning ones can have many losing bets.