Replies to post #182372 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Many investors did expect GILD’s Harvoni approval to come well before the PDUFA date, so the fact that it hasn’t is somewhat bullish for competitors.

…the possibility that the 8 week treatment from GILD's all oral is not approved, which would give ABBV 50% more pricing power?

I’ve discussed this possibility at considerable length; however, John Milligan’s recent presentation at the Morgan Stanley conference made it sound as though GILD thinks it has 8-week labeling (for TN non-cirrhotics) in the bag. GILD doesn’t have a history of spewing BS at investor presentations, so I take Milligan’s remarks at face value.

…the possibility that the drug returned by NVS [EDP-239] is worth more in ENTA’s or someone else's hands?

I don’t see how anyone who has done even a modicum of DD on the HCV landscape could genuinely think that NVS’ dumping EDP-239 was positive for ENTA.

…a rotation from ACHN to ENTA?

Possibly; however, the people who piled into ACHN a few months ago (following the MRK-IDIX deal) were presumably looking for a quick reward, while ENTA is a stock where the bullish story figures to play out more gradually.

…the lack of competitors remaining in the space as take-over possibilities?

This is essentially the same explanation as the above (rotation from ACHN).

…a catch-up from the lack of movement over the last six months - at least compared to GILD?

But why now? I don’t think the timing is completely unrelated to the Harvoni PDUFA date.