Replies to post #182361 on Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

ENTA’s recent strength is probably tied to the lack of FDA’s early decision for GILD’s Harvoni (PDUFA date 10/10/14). I.e., GILD’s headstart relative to ABBV/ENTA for all-oral GT1 treatment in US is likely to be small.

Why would anyone think that it would be "small[er]" than it would otherwise have been? Do you really think that investors thought that GILD would be early and ABBV not? Are you saying that you think ABBV approval will be early now? Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, probably since I had always thought both would be near the actual scheduled date.

And ENTA current strength could have a lot of other explanations - my preferred one is that there is a big buyer out there recently - can really move a stock with such a low float. JMO. Other possibilities are 1) a rotation from ACHN to ENTA; 2) the possibility that the 8 week treatment from GILD's all oral is not approved, which which would give ABBV 50% more pricing power; 3) the lack of competitors remaining in the space as take-over possibilities; 4) the possibility that the drug returned by NVS is worth more in ENTA or someone else's hands; 5) a catch-up from the lack of movement over the last six months - at least compared to GILD; etc.