Hi Allen, AIM, Bulls and Bears......................
Healthcare and Biotech were 2013's shining stars as sector funds. They were on a roll. Be careful of rear view mirror investing. It can be as painful as guessing the future outcome of our investing ideas.
As a 26 year veteran of using AIM, I really don't think much about bull or bear markets. Further the 2008 panic skewed the sector rotation and its never really gone back to the way it was.
That said, utilities and healthcare have been struggling a bit more than other sectors in recent times. Hence on that graphic it would appear that we're approaching the 'mature' end of this long bullish period we've had since March of 2009. The X-axis doesn't have a fixed time frame. The scale can be short to very long. Right now the bulls have 5+ years and counting on their side. Last year's stock growth was fabulous and this year's has been far more moderate but positive.
Using AIM as a measure of market cycle, I'd say the markets are healthy and done with their "recovery" period from the panic. Now they're going to be following the business cycle along with the interest rate cycle. I continue to ride my AIM Unicycle, so will let the markets guide my AIM investments (which is all of my investments).
As far as market risk goes, it seems to be a relatively benign market with upside potential reasonably balanced with downside risk. So, I'd say Neutral rather than Bullish or Bearish. Such a market will continue until such time we see corporate profits start to fall. Note I didn't say Corporate Profit Growth, but just bottom line profits. Profit growth has already been declining for a while, but profits are still healthy.
The difference between guessing the future and AIM is that we only have a 50/50 chance of being right about the future while AIM has 20/20 hindsight as its guide. It's not so much about where the future is going, but having a plan for what is happening right now no matter what the future holds.
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