Replies to post #33931 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[mrmainstreet]

So the better the drug does, the longer it takes to hit the event target. But if the drug does really well then it could get stopped early as well, right?

So in a sense we either want to hear results early or late, meaning the drug had huge effect early, or at least beat the target 15% and the events took longer to accumulate (at least in the non-pacebo side).

Is that accurate?

[Whalatane]

HD


CHK Biwatchs post # 27152 5/6/14

He was projecting 443 MACE events by August 6th ..with an event per day ...so about 486 events by now.

Whats tricky is that the more people in the trial the more events that are likely . So if we were at 1 a day with 6,000 in the trial ..are we now slightly over 1.1 per day with 6,800 in the trial .

Will the event rate be back end loaded as the patient group ages and those recruited in high event areas like Eastern Europe take up a larger % of the patient numbers

Bio Stats ..interesting field

Kiwi

[sts66]

A couple big blocks right at 16:00:00 - wonder if they were intramarket sweeps - think the first one definitely is, price doesn't match bid or ask:

09/09/14 16:00:00 1.98 1.97 2.00 21501
09/09/14 16:00:00 1.98 1.97 1.98 68600
09/09/14 16:00:00 1.98 1.97 1.98 3000
09/09/14 16:00:00 1.98 1.97 1.98 461500

[Biobillionair]

HD, you might be the smartest man I know on this board...if the event rate 5.2% is slightly low and the 18 mo follow up is slightly off...this may put us at the 60% interim look now. Considering what the FDA has been doing to us since Oct 16th, I'd assume Amarin is very focussed on the scheduled look. My crappy math skills put us in the ballpark today. Good luck my friend..., I'll send you any PACER significant updates.

BB