Replies to post #58784 on Liquidmetal Technologies Inc (LQMT)

[jaybiscuit]

Follow up to my previous post. This is from a few days ago. (See link below)

While any apple news is certainly great--a contract award here is extremely significant.

http:/armytechnology.armylive.dodlive.mil/index.php/2014/09/02/army-developing-small-missile-for-big-mission/

[Athens_One]

Looks like 8 canards per round, let's say at $50 a piece takes us to $200? So they'd need an order for 8 million canards. Not gonna happen unless we go to war with Russia and China at the same time. And in that case, we'd have to use tactical nukes instead.

I think we should look past canards to LiquidMetal drones, but I haven't heard about any prototyping for that.

[truetrue]

The good news bad news is Liquidmetal will SHARE profits...with VISSER.

Even worse news is the delay to 2016 before escalated production when real revenues are enjoyed. Even then Lockheed will still be in flight tests.

i.e Not fully approved, inventory rate production.

http://armytechnology.armylive.dodlive.mil/index.php/2014/09/02/army-developing-small-missile-for-big-mission/

"The first fully guided flight test of MHTK against a RAM target occurred in January 2014...all the MHTK components with the exception of the seeker are considered to have achieved a technology readiness level of 6. The system is currently at technology readiness level 5.

Additional flights are scheduled through 2015, and will continue to use the semi-active RF seeker. Beginning in 2016 flight tests will use the fully active RF seeker."

Future LQMT Revenues

1. The Gateway Conf. confirmed gross revenues for the foreseeable future will be only SWATCH ~$150K+ per Q.

2. New revenues from first contract(s) not until Q2 - Q3 of 2015 per Tom (~9 months). STEIPP says as many as (4) contracts rolling into production next year.

3. Per Gateway Conf. STEIPP quote, "...parts will sell @ $1.00 to $50.00 per part, running up to 100K parts per year for 2-5 years." 100K canards @ VERY GENEROUS $50.00 = $5M per year gross sales. Scaling in mid - late 2015. Split with VISSER...

4. STEIPP says it's [unknown] what the license / mfg. PROFIT margins will be ? Again, STEIPP said (3) contract profits will be split with VISSER...unknown when in FULL production.

5. Tom says "break even" is ~ $20M in gross (?) revs. On the low side if a contract is ONLY bringing in approx. the same revs. as the SWATCH contract @ ~$200K per Q per contract = $800K per year per contract. It's my best guess...My math says that's about 20 - 30 contracts.

6. At that rate, how many years will it take to break even? Generously, let's say 10 - 15 new contracts per year, we're looking at ~ 1 1/2 - 2 years from next summer.

7. Liquidmetal MUST have the ability to ramp up to that level of business in-house and w/contract mfgs.


****There's a lo-o-o-ong ways to go to "get there" on all fronts.

[Watts Watt]

Steipp told us that LQMT needs revenues totaling USD 20 million to break-even. I believe Tony Chung stated that the target gross margin is around 40 per cent. Our current cash burn is about 2300-2500 per month, I am estimating.

I am trying to figure out how many shots of material at 11.40 per shot LQMT needs to produce on its machine (s) to reach break even.

Could someone good at higher math take a stab at this?

Libre? DMN? Oracle?

Seems like a good way to waste away the rest of this trading day.