EDITED: "If I was as convinced as you are that they are in the No vote camp I would probably send a sizable contribution to the lobbying group" - Then, I am convinced you should send your check to the lobbying group and here is why:
Remember the ISO amendment last year in 2002 (for 2M more shares) which had about 35% "no" votes (as I recall), so it was passed. Where do you think all these "no" came from last year? IMO, they came overwhelmingly from institutions at a time when the institutions held about 20% of the company.
It is certainly the case that institutions WILL indeed vote against some management recommendations. The remaining 15% "no" votes last year came from individuals (including me, btw), when individuals held then about 70% of the company (not counting management, insiders, etc. with about 10%).
Now, I have spoken to ISS and confirmed they have in fact done a proxy analysis on IDCC this year and specifically on measure #2. I have also reviewed their methodology, which I posted earlier today. Based on these factors (and other inputs), I am extremely confident that in general, our institutions will indeed in general vote "NO", IMO.
Rather than "assume[d] they were in the 'yes' camp", why don't you do some diligence on the institutional vote using your WS contacts?
If you do analyze the voting record on ISO at IDCC, review the institutional voting guidelines from ISS, and survey some institutions yourself, you might be VERY surprised what you find.
EDIT: I have never heard of minorty institutions "lobbying" majority individual shareholders, however, they do show their hand by their voting record, which IMO is clear at IDCC e.g. against ISO expansion last year.
So, Danny, can you please report on ANY due diligence you have done into the institutional vote??
It is disappointing that you are relying on an assumption on your part.
And, yes, I am certainly in favor of sharing our DD and analysis in a cilivilized manner as we ar doing now. It does help to clarify the root causes of our disagreements.
Corp_buyer