Replies to post #113183 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[TJ Parker]

> I think from a probability standpoint ...

nevertheless, from the point of view of prudence ... there's not a whole lot you lose by waiting a bit. (nevertheless, i'm short, but also hedged with some old calls ... well, the ones i haven't sold.)

[deuce bigalow]

How often has the Nasdaq gone up ~20% and then continued to go up without a significant, ~10% say, correction?<<<<

there are some other questions to ask, when was the last time the nasdaq (or $spx) 200 dma was in a nosedive for 3 years, when was the last time the $vix traded in a range from roughly 27-50 for about 9 months (june to march). When was the last time all the major averages were on top of rising 200 dma.

from a wychoff view the nasdaq has jumped the creek on expanding volume (broke out of a base) and backed up to pivot the 1500 area turning resistance into support, with 3 bell ringing days of cboe p/c ratios over 1 no less (1500 is a significant pivot going back to 1997)

a lot of people have been calling a top or expecting a correction for quite a while, me too, but at this point i wouldn't rule out the market continuing to go up and the dow & $spx breaking thru and following the nasdaq out of the trading range.

[Zeev Hed]

I don't think that right here we will get the "satisfaction" of a full 10% correction, 1500 +/-20 should serve as very strong support, IMTO. Got to change the psychology and view the extremely high BP's as an indication that a lot of stocks are in positive trend. One of the "things" I am looking at is the relationships between the number of stocks above different moving averages. The Sox on the short side of the list (the 10, 21 and 50) is now at an extreme (98,95,97 respectively), as I often say, how much higher can it go? Yet, while short term that will probably cause a retrenchment, unless the number for the 200 DMA drops under about 42 (half what it is now) in a retrenchment, I'll have to stay positive overall on the market medium term. You can call my current "bearish stance" just a "correction" stance, not a grizzly bear.

Zeev