Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[augieboo]

Justa, I make the current 4 week average of bears over bulls + bears out to be just over 29% using data from Schaeffer's. (See calculations below.) The low on your chart is something below 10%. A reading of 29% on your chart can correlate to any one of several spikes between the second quarter of 1974 and the third quarter of 1975. Whether today is analogous to mid-1974 or late 1975 makes a huge difference in how close we are to a top, IMDO.

Now go back to the bubble days of 2000 and, guess what, there are more bulls as a percentage of buls plus bears now than there was back at the peak:

Yes, but the question in my mind is, how high was that figure in the three years before the peak -- and the ten years before that?

My main thesis is that something has changed / is changing, and therefore data from the last three years is no longer of much, if any, use. If I had relied on data from the last three years I would still be holding my 2X NDX short, which means that as of today's action, (assuming a strong close), I would be down another 10% on the trade.

So, frothy sentiment or no frothy sentiment, I think this market is going up until it turns, and I'm not going to try to call or even speculate on a turn unless I can do so using data which goes back at least 20 years.

(:

augie

Note: I'm still hiding under the bed, flat as a pancake, and looking to stay that way until I figure out some of this junk.


http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/inv_intel.asp

Date: Bulls Bears
=========================
5/28 53.6 22.0
5/21 56.0 20.9
5/14 54.4 23.9
5/7 55.8 24.4
=========================
Totals: 219.8 91.2

Average: 54.95 22.8

22.8 / (22.8 + 54.95) =

22.8 / 77.75 = .29324 or 29%