You are right about that Nolerman. Your time frame sounds about right too, although there are several dominoes teetering, ready to fall and speed up the process. Don't forget, the world has had several years to prepare for it. Iran (and consequently everybody else) has found ways to circumvent sanctions for years. Every time the US threatens somebody with sanctions, they have new incentive to find and deploy alternative payment systems.
Threats of sanctions against Russia are a not so funny joke that only speeds up the process of finding alternatives. We are isolating ourselves ("We" not being you and me, but the 1% who bought the government and the politicians who sold us out).
The rest of the world is tired of getting pushed around by the US and it's wall street punks.
When the bully becomes intolerable enough, nobody plays with the bully any more.