Replies to post #16356 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[john1045]

MorningStar: looks like Sabby sold a portion of their holdings based on below from MorningStar.

Name Ownership Trend
Previous 8 Qtrs Shares Change % Total
Shares Held % Total
Assets Date

Franklin Advisers, Inc. Premium 2,515,944 341,800 4.59 0.01 03/31/2014

Sabby Management LLC Premium 2,054,200 -913,282 4.50 0 12/31/2013

Vanguard Group, Inc. Premium 847,628 134,370 1.55 0 03/31/2014

Goldman, Sachs & Co. Premium 610,702 -9,998 1.11 0 03/31/2014

Royal Bank Of Canada Premium 518,566 335 0.95 0 03/31/2014

Knoll Capital Management LP Premium 200,300 200,300 0.37 0.75 03/31/2014

Allianz Global Investors 1 Premium 187,500 0 0.34 0.01 03/31/2014

JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Premium 184,429 184,429 0.34 0.01 03/31/2014

Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) Premium 182,349 -91,967 0.33 0 03/31/2014

Geode Capital Management, LLC Premium 157,725 61,532 0.29 0 03/31/2014

Total: Top 10 institutions Premium 7,459,343 -92,481 14.37






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Peer Comparison

NWBO

Equity Ownership NWBO

Market Cap (Mil USD) 363 --- --- ---

# of Institution Owners 78 --- --- ---

# of Fund Owners 56 --- --- ---

% Owned by Institutions 16.69 --- --- ---

% Owned by Funds 7.92 --- --- ---

% Owned by Insiders 5.39 ---

[sitiain66]

Basin Street Blues..

The question of why large institutions have avoided NWBO bothers us all
Possible Reasons...
NWBO have never invested in a decent bank to do their fund raising or paid aggressively for PR.
I know the PR has changed a little , BUT (ive been a share holder for 6 years ) it has been abysmal.
The money raised has by and large gone to the wrong hands , especially the first big raise on the NASDAQ it was a disaster.
Basically it was just flippers (no offence flipper), but its left i think a bad taste.
Having owned the shares for so long , DNDN massive instructional holding really effected us too.(again no real research to explain why we are different)
Analyst coverage.
Lets face it , its piss poor. Institutions don’t read seeking alpha they want to a line themselves with large research houses I>E banks so they can explain to their managers if it goes wrong.
Does Linda feel overly conflicted with the FDA....?
IMUC seemed to get away with blue murder back in the day when we were saying very little. Sure look at them now, but we never got that early money support while they did.
Is the CFO the right man for the job.?
I have gone through this in my mind a few times, i remain grey.
I think mistakes have been made with financing that continue to affect us.
The conspiracy effect… I hate conspiracy theories as they are often just an excuse for poor delivery .However , i have been and continue to be shocked by the goings on around this industry and this company.
HOWEVER
As frustrating as it is, institutions are like sheep. Look if you buy the same crap as everyone else and it goes down you keep your job due to performing the same as everyone else.
I know i am oversimplifying here, but its the state of affairs here i am sure.
NWBO remains in most uneducated minds a all or nothing investment. German news (again lack of annalist) has been largely ignored by the share holders.
So when they do arrive, as they must if we get more strong data on DIRECT.
It will possible be a rush ..........a lot of short hands will help,,,,
We have i guess, an impending raise to balance this off, Again will it be handled properly?. Will it go into strong hands , not some
Jumped up hedge fund guy that just wants to make his annual 15 percent who sees an easy flip with nwbo.
All should be answered soon.
If it makes you feel any better i am very similarly exposed to you.
SO beers are on us if it all comes together.

[maverick_1]

Why Instl % is Low Add this factor as well:( TWO Reverse Splits)

Like my screen name: view this as HUGE OPPORTUNITY for 50%+ levels
with DEFINITIVE ANNOUNCEMENTS like AA; L Efficacy; UK/Germany developments.

ADD to that ONE Institution purportedly Susquehanna Holdings (already own and is a $40 BLN fund from IT guys that are large
option market makers for GOOG; AMZN etc took the whole HC Wainwright placement in April 2014: to be verified when June qtr
Instl holdings are updated! & still not qualify as 13F holder: lower than 5%))

maverick_1 Monday, 06/30/14 12:25:24 AM
Re: None
Post # of 16363
Why Institutional Interest is Low(a mere 13%): But could grow EXPONENTIALLY?

FYI I just started posting in YMB under alias truthseruumm on the topic:(edited with some additions!)

Why doesn't Baker Bros own NWBO?

I also have wondered about that for many months.
Same also for those other savvy biotech sleuths.
My thought process which I think you'll find valid:
1)Blighted by DNDN (Baker Bros was a key holder early on); followed by Dec '13 debacle of IMUC data.
Important Additional Note:
IMPERATIVE that one understands as investors all the things different that NWBO does vs their ill fated sisters: IMUC and notably DNDN (run by Mitch Gold who coincidentally was previously the CEO of a company I owned in 2002(techwreck mkt then) who fortunately sold their hospital software w/wireless apps to GE Healthcare unit). I've done my long legwork DD here.
2)Only want biotechs with many targeted indications in large mkt opportunities.
3)Turblent past where if not for LP et al,NWBO would be bankrupt
4)View of LP et al owning 39%
5)Size of past NWBO offering perhaps not offering sufficient liquidity re daily trading
AND
6)Although DCVAX L currently BLINDED, IF Institutions would logically juxtapose FDA's revised view of Cancer Immunotherapy along with the revamped rules towards the possibility of accelerated approval along the lines of iHub & Seeking Alpha contributor Pyrrhonian, then it would be a blessing since institutions own 88% of Celldex(vs our 13%. Celldex has a market capitalization at least 4.5X that of NWBO where their lead pdt is really only addressing 25% of the brain cancer therapy market and their GBM trial is expected to end much later!
7)Backgrounds of mgt team has a bearing on % institutional ownership: case in point Celldex management primarily from Medarex that sold to Bristol Myers (not surprisingly CLDX's new partner!)
8)Despite the above, the time is rapidly approaching IMHO as I saw that happen where my stake in Omeros in the last year went from $4 to $18 with Baker Bros partaking late last year when a large block became available. Similarly with my stake over the last 18 mos in Anika Therapeutics where institutional ownership was close to 10% when I bought @ $10 and is now $46 with instl ownership now 70%+.
CONCLUSION: Stars are becoming aligned... ALL it takes IMHO is one or two institutions to be buying on the open market: as the shorts
are seemingly at the end of their rope (except for illegal naked shorting).
Next capital raise should be strictly institutional catering to: ie: Baker Bros; Fidelity;OrbiMed;Jennison; etc (and EXCLUDE short hedgy types) unlike that of Nov/Dec '13 secondary with Oppenheimer's retail reps unloading!on or just after Germany
P.I.E announcement that caused the first crater.

[sentiment_stocks]

BSB - that is an amazing number of shares you have invested. I only wish I had that much to invest :)

A couple of notes,

1. I'm no expert, but like Afford just noted, I'll bet the German approval has been missed by a lot of people. It came out in the news on one day, there was lots of hoopla, and then... silence. You'd have to be a regular on this board to know that silence isn't something to be disturbed about. And I suggest for many, it's been forgotten or it never hit their radar screen.

But... as Dok and others have pointed out, Germany will produce a viable revenue stream for NWBO that, when it is sorted out, will be noticed. I would think that would at least protect your/our share value from dropping to $3, and more than likely, ought to lift if out of the $6s.

I'm not sure how easy it would be for institutions to take a big position in NWBO. It might be difficult to acquire a large number of shares with so many low volume days. But I'm not an expert AT ALL on that count. Perhaps someone else on the board can explain how an institution would establish a large position.

Mapman noted that NWBO will file its 10Q on August 14. Perhaps they'll wrap up their German negotiations by then and we'll get a nice surprise.

Finally, in an effort to help you decide whether you truly are comfortable holding the position you are in, I'd ask you this. If you were unfortunate enough to be diagnosed with GBM, what would you do? If your doctor recommended that you follow SOC, would you? Is there another trial you'd prefer to get into? If your doctor recommended that you NOT race off to Germany for treatment - either with L or Dr. Nesselhut's perhaps similar vaccine, would you listen?

If you'd listen to your doctor, then perhaps you should lighten your load. If you know you'd be on a plane to Germany or Israel to access L, then perhaps you should trust your own DD here.

I mean, if you'd trust your life to L, then perhaps you can trust parking so much money here. :)