Bigsky -- I agree with you about the 3Q numbers being the tell-all.
I have to disagree as to your assertion that O&A's numbers were declining on terrestrial radio. They were #1 in morning drive when they went out (both times, 2002 and the last time).
The issue with terrestrial radio is that the FCC has extremely vague "indecency" rules and absurd fines for violations thereof ($350k per incident PER STATION, which is truly absurd) -- these fines were increased in the early 2000's from ~$5k to $350k.
Vague laws lead to uneven enforcement (because the notion of "indecency" is subjective -- it's in the mind of the beholder). So it's hard to blame radio stations for not wanting to push the envelope when a syndicated radio show could say the word "piss" (yes, that is an actionable word by the FCC) and wind up being fined $350k x 10-20 stations...so $3.5-7MM hit for just using a "fleeting expletive."
The FCC's tyranny is why Stern left terrestrial radio, and it's what made XM/Sirius so attractive to talk radio fans -- Satellite is not regulated by the FCC. It was supposed to be the wild west of radio. Again, this is another reason why people are outraged by Sirius firing O&A. The company was marketed as a rallying cry against the FCC's censorship.
I suspect that Opie & Anthony's salary has far less to do with their numbers than it does with the absolute leverage Sirius has over them -- O&A had no where else to go except for Satellite. Terrestrial radio can't afford to hire a show whose success depends on pushing the envelope and doing edgy radio. Sirius knows that, and $3MM is enough to make sure they don't walk.
It is what it is, everyone will move on in a few months. In the short term however, this is going to continue to be a big story.
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