Hi AAC, Part of the definition of "trend" is in defining the time period. One could argue that the 20th century was nothing but an uptrend if viewed from far enough away.
Myst and I were discussing this in a different way recently. He used the same parameters for short term (daily) and long term (monthly?) and came up with High Risk and Low Risk respectively. How can this be? It's all a matter of perspective.
There's been some discussion of adding to SAFE in the direction of the sequential trades. There's also been discussion of accelerating AIM's selling by reducing SAFE with sequential sales. One says the trend is friendly and the other says make hay while the sun's shining. Unfortunately I don't believe anyone has done any thorough examination of this.
I've changed SAFE on my accounts because of big events, such as the 2000 all time High Risk signal that the Idiot Wave gave. I shifted SAFE to the Buy side and then padded many of them as well to delay the start of buying. My cash lasted longer than some peoples, but still didn't survive all the way to the bottom. (close enough that I'm pleased, however)
So, there will be a time when someone does study this carefully. I'd suggested that maybe the change shouldn't be to SAFE but to frequency of buying with sequential buys. If cash starts to deplete, then maybe one should slow the pace of spending. In business it happens all the time. I have to admit that over time I have learned to be a better stock picker, relative to AIM, and a better AIM manager. Seasoning still helps even automatic investment management!
:-)
Best regards, Tom
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