Replies to post #110446 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[ajtj99]

Where's the new aps to drive that demand?

[mlsoft]

lepto...

I think you are reading more into Moore's law than is there. If a new upward cycle began in the sector at the end of last year, it is certainly well disguised. Unless AG is able to pull off the economic miracle of the century, I suspect we will be hoping for a second half recovery again this time next year.

mlsoft

[TJ Parker]

> Based on the Moore's law, the cyclical nature of the semi
> industry ought to start as of the end of last year, which will
> last 2.5 years before the next down turn. (new fab, new speed,
> etc.)

moore's law is not a law.

although the semi industry *has been* cyclical (in a cycle of its own, that is), the current downturn doesn't fit into the cycle as its been seen in the past. when, in previous cycles, were fab capacities down under 75% using older processes (i.e. not upgrading to newer).

if it comes, you'll see it in the equipment co's. which i suppose is why they're still clinging to inflated p/e's.