> Based on the Moore's law, the cyclical nature of the semi
> industry ought to start as of the end of last year, which will
> last 2.5 years before the next down turn. (new fab, new speed,
> etc.)
moore's law is not a law.
although the semi industry *has been* cyclical (in a cycle of its own, that is), the current downturn doesn't fit into the cycle as its been seen in the past. when, in previous cycles, were fab capacities down under 75% using older processes (i.e. not upgrading to newer).
if it comes, you'll see it in the equipment co's. which i suppose is why they're still clinging to inflated p/e's.
