The FDA chance to win it at court not more than 50%, so they ‘have to’ do something within FDA process. I guess the appeal at the right level – enough high, but not too high – and the timing was perfect for the House / Senate action. It’s still IF, but if the SPA will be reinstated at this level – around end of July - the effect will be huge.
The WS always pricing the future and to be honest, based on facts, current situation, outlook (not possible outlook) the current PPS is more or less realistic, however till end of July we will see the first phase effect of KOWA and the PPS will be around 1,90-2,10
The possible reinstatement will be resulted in ANCHOR approval (If I understood correctly everything, with valid SPA and since all endpoints were met, no safety issue the sNDA HAVE TO be approved.)
After ANCHOR approval:
- WS will price the ANCHOR market: +$7/10
- the 27M short position will be closed: +$3/5 during the first 1-2 weeks
- the chance of BO will be significantly higher: +$3/5
before reinstatement / ANCHOR: $2
after reinstatement / ANCHOR: $12-15 (for 1 week)
after the 1st week: increasing from $10 till $15-17 within 2-3 weeks and will keep it / slow increase with increasing scripts
And yes, I am long with AMRN, but first of all I am investor …
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