The Financial Times reported on February 28 that Nigeria is shifting its sourcing for military equipment to China because U.S. concerns about corruption within the Nigerian security forces have delayed the delivery of equipment. In July 2005, China signed an $800 million crude oil agreement with Nigeria, and Beijing is considering $7 billion worth of investments in Nigeria. #msg-10243530
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Nigeria OKs Handover of Liberian Warlord Updated 8:19 PM ET March 25, 2006
By MICHELLE FAUL
ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) - Nigeria said Saturday it is ready to hand over Liberian warlord Charles Taylor to be the first former African head of state tried for crimes against humanity, making a reluctant move that will be a strong warning for other warmongers on the continent.
Taylor is accused of starting a civil war in his homeland that brutalized tens of thousands of young boys and girls drafted as rebel fighters. He also is blamed for a savage war in neighboring Sierra Leone where rebels _ including child fighters _ terrorized victims by chopping off arms, legs, ears and lips.
An international tribunal indictment says Taylor is criminally responsible for the destruction of Liberia and Sierra Leone and for the murder, rape, maiming and mutilation of more than a half million Sierra Leoneans. An additional 2.5 million people were forced from their homes.
Each of the 17 charges he faces in the indictment carries a sentence life in prison.
Taylor is also accused of harboring al-Qaida suicide bombers who attacked U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.
The former Liberian leader has been in exile in the southern Nigerian city of Calabar since being forced from power under a 2003 accord that ended a rebel assault on Liberia's capital. Nigeria had resisted extraditing him, arguing he was given refuge under the internationally brokered peace deal.
Many African leaders are leery of trying former presidents or dictators, apparently worrying they could be the next to be accused of human rights abuses or other crimes. Others fear a push to try toppled leaders would encourage those in power to more fiercely resist democratic change.
But in a statement, Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo said he had informed Liberia's president that "the government of Liberia is free to take former President Charles Taylor into its custody."
After her inauguration in January, Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf said a trial for Taylor was not a priority. But she made a formal request to Nigeria after an official visit to Washington, which is the source of aid needed to rebuild Liberia, Africa's first republic founded by freed American slaves in 1847.
There was speculation Taylor would be sent directly to the U.N. war crimes tribunal in Sierra Leone rather than be taken to Liberia, where there are worries his presence could destabilize the country trying to recover from 14 years of war.
Liberia's government had no immediate comment, and neither Taylor nor his spokesman could be reached for comment.
Taylor reportedly warned this week that Liberia would suffer if he was extradited. After meeting with the deposed leader in Nigeria, Indian evangelist Kilari Anand Paul quoted Taylor as saying: "There is no question in my mind that there will be chaos.'"
New York-based Human Rights Watch urged Nigerian officials to arrest Taylor, who escaped from a U.S. jail to become a rebel leader.
"Urgent steps need to be taken to tighten security around his Calabar villa, and to take Charles Taylor into custody immediately," said the organization's Richard Dicker.
In Liberia, security agents said they arrested at least two Taylor loyalists Saturday after getting reports that the former leader's supporters were engaged in "secret meetings" to ensure he does not stand trial.
David M. Crane, the American prosecutor who drew up Taylor's indictment, said his extradition would send a powerful message.
"Certainly African leaders, members of the good old boy network, are under notice that you cannot destroy your own citizens for your own personal gain and you don't go after women and children _ don't rape women, don't turn children into monsters," Crane said.
He said a trial for Taylor would "crack the wall against impunity."
Taylor allegedly started the Sierra Leone war to get his fighters access to its rich diamond fields. In Liberia, he enriched himself from diamonds, timber and rubber.
"This was unique in history," Crane said. "It was criminals for their own criminal purposes using traditional methods of warfare for their own criminal gain which resulted in war crimes against humanity."
Nevertheless, the indictment alleges Taylor was a pawn in a bigger plot drawn up by Moammar Gaddafi, the Libyan leader who was indicted as a co-conspirator, to take over several African nations over 10 years. It says Taylor and other African rebels were trained, armed and equipped by Libyan special forces.
Taylor has denied allegations that he twice tried to assassinate President Lansana Conte of Guinea in revenge for Guinea's sponsoring the rebel group that was marching on Liberia's capital, Monrovia, when Taylor finally agreed to leave.
The case is loaded with implications for African presidents, who include coup leaders and others accused of human rights violations. It could set a precedent for those living in comfortable exile as well as sitting leaders, such as those in the Sudanese government that the United States accuses of genocide in the Darfur region.
___
Associated Press writers Jonathan Paye-Layleh in Monrovia, Liberia, and Clarence Roy-Macaulay in Freetown, Sierra Leona, contributed to this report.
Intelligence Brief: M.E.N.D. Escalates Instability in Nigeria
27 April 2006 Security conditions in Nigeria show no sign of improvement. A new Ijaw tribe militant group in the Niger Delta, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (M.E.N.D.), is tallying up the number of successful attacks against government security forces and multinational oil companies. M.E.N.D. is a shadowy organization that first came to prominence on January 11, 2006 when it kidnapped oil workers based at Royal Dutch Shell's offshore EA oil rig. While the workers were released, M.E.N.D. has proven to be a capable, armed organization. For instance, since January, M.E.N.D. has killed at least 24 soldiers and police, kidnapped 13 oil workers and caused severe damage to several critical oil pipelines. [See: "Intelligence Brief: Iran, Nigeria"]
One of M.E.N.D.'s most recent attacks occurred on April 19 in the oil city of Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta. The organization detonated a car bomb at the Bori Camp military base, killing two people. After the attack, M.E.N.D. released an e-mail statement cautioning that the incident "serves as a further warning to the Nigerian military, oil companies and those who are attempting to sell the birthright of the Niger Delta peoples for a bowl of porridge. In the coming weeks, we will carry out similar attacks against relevant oil industry targets and individuals."
M.E.N.D.'s sudden rise comes directly after a reduction in attacks from the Niger Delta's most prominent Ijaw militant group, the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force (N.D.P.V.F.). After the N.D.P.V.F.'s leader, Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, was arrested on charges of treason on September 20, 2005, he called on his supporters to cease hostilities; this was an effort on his part to portray his organization as non-violent so the government would have difficulty prosecuting him. Since his call for an end to hostilities, the N.D.P.V.F. remained uncharacteristically silent, and now M.E.N.D. has stolen the spotlight. [See: "Intelligence Brief: Nigeria"]
M.E.N.D.'s motivations for fighting appear to be the same as N.D.P.V.F., and M.E.N.D. has called for the release of Dokubo-Asari. It is quite possible that after N.D.P.V.F.'s ceasefire, militants from the organization founded, or greatly assisted, M.E.N.D. in an effort to continue attacks against the government and multinational security forces; this strategy would have the benefit of avoiding implicating N.D.P.V.F. and Dokubo-Asari in the renewed violence. While this is a possibility, M.E.N.D. may indeed be a new organization as there is no lack of Ijaw militant groups willing to use violence to achieve their interests. Indeed, in recent days, even the N.D.P.V.F. appears to be taking up arms once again; N.D.P.V.F. spokesman Colonel Sunny Tari announced the start of Operation Isaac Boro, an armed offensive, saying that N.D.P.V.F. would work with other Ijaw militant groups in achieving their joint objectives.
Factors Behind Instability
The attacks by Ijaw militants will continue for the foreseeable future. This is possible because the Ijaw militants have a strong support base within the Niger Delta. Despite the fact that 95 percent of Nigeria's foreign exchange is earned from oil exports, and that the majority of this oil is pumped out of the Niger Delta, the delta's inhabitants live in poverty, many without electricity or running water. The Ijaw make up the bulk of the population in the delta, and while many do not agree with using violence in order to achieve their objectives, they at least sympathize with the cause of the tribal militants. [See: "Intelligence Brief: Nigeria"]
Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo recently made an effort to redress some of these grievances, announcing on April 19 a nine-point development plan that would create 20,000 jobs in the Niger Delta area; the plan aims for improvements in transportation, employment generation, education, environment, health, power and water resources, agriculture and telecommunications. M.E.N.D. quickly rejected the plan, stating, "We wish to restate our warnings to oil companies still operating in the Niger Delta, and more especially workers for such companies, to leave while they can. … At a time of our choosing we will resume attacks with greater devastation and no compassion on those who choose to disregard our warnings."
In addition to this ongoing instability, Nigeria faces elections in 2007. As part of the country's 1999 constitution, which came after 15 years of military rule, Obasanjo must step down since he is currently serving out his second term. His People's Democratic Party, however, is attempting to make changes to the constitution to allow Obasanjo to run for a third term. This has caused anger with some members of the party, such as Vice President Atiku Abubakar who plans to run in the 2007 elections. More importantly, it is threatening instability in the primarily-Muslim north of the country. On April 24, for instance, Obasanjo was traveling through the northern city of Kano when supporters of the city's Islamist state governor, Ibrahim Shekarau, and his All Nigeria People's Party rained stones upon the convoy. Nigeria has faced inter-religious rioting in the past, and this issue threatens to exacerbate that tension.
The Bottom Line
These factors demonstrate why instability will continue in Nigeria, primarily in the country's Niger Delta region. The frequent instability has already cut Nigeria's oil exports down about 20 percent; on April 25, for example, ExxonMobil announced that it evacuated non-essential staff from Nigeria's Qua Iboe oil facility, the country's largest export terminal, over concerns that an attack was imminent.
Nevertheless, oil companies are familiar with working in unstable environments. An April 26 report in the Financial Times revealed that Royal Dutch Shell had subcontracted work to companies operated by Niger Delta militants in an attempt to placate these aggrieved groups, and to prevent them from attacking their facilities in the future.
Furthermore, Nigeria's oil instability has not prevented China from expanding its energy investments in Nigeria. In April, China National Offshore Oil Corporation announced that it signed a US$2.7 billion agreement for a 45 percent stake in a Nigerian oil block. According to recent media reports, China National Petroleum Corporation was also just offered four oil exploration blocks in Nigeria as part of a deal that would bring some $4 billion in Chinese repairs and infrastructure projects to Nigeria. [See: "The Increasing Importance of African Oil"]
Expect Ijaw militants to continue, and probably escalate, their attacks against government and multinational interests, and watch as energy companies, and government security forces, struggle to adapt to this pervasive threat.
The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of inquiries@pinr.com. All comments should be directed to content@pinr.com.
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