Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

Intelligence Brief: M.E.N.D. Escalates Instability in Nigeria

27 April 2006
Security conditions in Nigeria show no sign of improvement. A new Ijaw tribe militant group in the Niger Delta, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (M.E.N.D.), is tallying up the number of successful attacks against government security forces and multinational oil companies. M.E.N.D. is a shadowy organization that first came to prominence on January 11, 2006 when it kidnapped oil workers based at Royal Dutch Shell's offshore EA oil rig. While the workers were released, M.E.N.D. has proven to be a capable, armed organization. For instance, since January, M.E.N.D. has killed at least 24 soldiers and police, kidnapped 13 oil workers and caused severe damage to several critical oil pipelines. [See: "Intelligence Brief: Iran, Nigeria"]

One of M.E.N.D.'s most recent attacks occurred on April 19 in the oil city of Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta. The organization detonated a car bomb at the Bori Camp military base, killing two people. After the attack, M.E.N.D. released an e-mail statement cautioning that the incident "serves as a further warning to the Nigerian military, oil companies and those who are attempting to sell the birthright of the Niger Delta peoples for a bowl of porridge. In the coming weeks, we will carry out similar attacks against relevant oil industry targets and individuals."

M.E.N.D.'s sudden rise comes directly after a reduction in attacks from the Niger Delta's most prominent Ijaw militant group, the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force (N.D.P.V.F.). After the N.D.P.V.F.'s leader, Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, was arrested on charges of treason on September 20, 2005, he called on his supporters to cease hostilities; this was an effort on his part to portray his organization as non-violent so the government would have difficulty prosecuting him. Since his call for an end to hostilities, the N.D.P.V.F. remained uncharacteristically silent, and now M.E.N.D. has stolen the spotlight. [See: "Intelligence Brief: Nigeria"]

M.E.N.D.'s motivations for fighting appear to be the same as N.D.P.V.F., and M.E.N.D. has called for the release of Dokubo-Asari. It is quite possible that after N.D.P.V.F.'s ceasefire, militants from the organization founded, or greatly assisted, M.E.N.D. in an effort to continue attacks against the government and multinational security forces; this strategy would have the benefit of avoiding implicating N.D.P.V.F. and Dokubo-Asari in the renewed violence. While this is a possibility, M.E.N.D. may indeed be a new organization as there is no lack of Ijaw militant groups willing to use violence to achieve their interests. Indeed, in recent days, even the N.D.P.V.F. appears to be taking up arms once again; N.D.P.V.F. spokesman Colonel Sunny Tari announced the start of Operation Isaac Boro, an armed offensive, saying that N.D.P.V.F. would work with other Ijaw militant groups in achieving their joint objectives.

Factors Behind Instability

The attacks by Ijaw militants will continue for the foreseeable future. This is possible because the Ijaw militants have a strong support base within the Niger Delta. Despite the fact that 95 percent of Nigeria's foreign exchange is earned from oil exports, and that the majority of this oil is pumped out of the Niger Delta, the delta's inhabitants live in poverty, many without electricity or running water. The Ijaw make up the bulk of the population in the delta, and while many do not agree with using violence in order to achieve their objectives, they at least sympathize with the cause of the tribal militants. [See: "Intelligence Brief: Nigeria"]

Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo recently made an effort to redress some of these grievances, announcing on April 19 a nine-point development plan that would create 20,000 jobs in the Niger Delta area; the plan aims for improvements in transportation, employment generation, education, environment, health, power and water resources, agriculture and telecommunications. M.E.N.D. quickly rejected the plan, stating, "We wish to restate our warnings to oil companies still operating in the Niger Delta, and more especially workers for such companies, to leave while they can. … At a time of our choosing we will resume attacks with greater devastation and no compassion on those who choose to disregard our warnings."

In addition to this ongoing instability, Nigeria faces elections in 2007. As part of the country's 1999 constitution, which came after 15 years of military rule, Obasanjo must step down since he is currently serving out his second term. His People's Democratic Party, however, is attempting to make changes to the constitution to allow Obasanjo to run for a third term. This has caused anger with some members of the party, such as Vice President Atiku Abubakar who plans to run in the 2007 elections. More importantly, it is threatening instability in the primarily-Muslim north of the country. On April 24, for instance, Obasanjo was traveling through the northern city of Kano when supporters of the city's Islamist state governor, Ibrahim Shekarau, and his All Nigeria People's Party rained stones upon the convoy. Nigeria has faced inter-religious rioting in the past, and this issue threatens to exacerbate that tension.

The Bottom Line

These factors demonstrate why instability will continue in Nigeria, primarily in the country's Niger Delta region. The frequent instability has already cut Nigeria's oil exports down about 20 percent; on April 25, for example, ExxonMobil announced that it evacuated non-essential staff from Nigeria's Qua Iboe oil facility, the country's largest export terminal, over concerns that an attack was imminent.

Nevertheless, oil companies are familiar with working in unstable environments. An April 26 report in the Financial Times revealed that Royal Dutch Shell had subcontracted work to companies operated by Niger Delta militants in an attempt to placate these aggrieved groups, and to prevent them from attacking their facilities in the future.

Furthermore, Nigeria's oil instability has not prevented China from expanding its energy investments in Nigeria. In April, China National Offshore Oil Corporation announced that it signed a US$2.7 billion agreement for a 45 percent stake in a Nigerian oil block. According to recent media reports, China National Petroleum Corporation was also just offered four oil exploration blocks in Nigeria as part of a deal that would bring some $4 billion in Chinese repairs and infrastructure projects to Nigeria. [See: "The Increasing Importance of African Oil"]

Expect Ijaw militants to continue, and probably escalate, their attacks against government and multinational interests, and watch as energy companies, and government security forces, struggle to adapt to this pervasive threat.



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