Yes, if Iclusiq revenue starts lagging I will be out.
But I do not see this for now.
$4.7M rev in the US was somewhat lower than I expected, but this was due to the 33% on 15mg.
If you assume $125k/yr (not sure Ariad really gets this much in average: e.g. Medicare discounts), it is 300 paying patients times 1.8 months on drug in average.
I think this is a reasonable number for now (sIND ended around Christmas, some got 1 month, some got 3 month supply early in sIND (November); commercial shipment started Jan 15; quick start 1 month free available; around 210-230 patients transitioning from sIND; rest are new patients).
Not sure why the mentioned the volume shipped to specialty pharmacies or how the process now works. Do the specialty pharmacies still have supply in stock (then why mention the shipment except to fluff up the numbers)? Or are supplies only shipped if prescription is there (then this would be real demand)? Or does this simply reflect the time gap in payment of shipped drugs?
France was a bit disappointing especially after Dr Bergers swagger last cc ("I guess we just have a lot of fans over there"). I thought this was Dr Berger at his worst (after the crash) and I certainly hated to see this.
Overall I think (but I am not 100% sure) that France allows import of drugs at foreign pricing until some point (so this means US prices) and then switch to local pricing. We know that pricing in France will be closer to Euro 4000/month (plus or minus a bit), so drop in rev by half is expected.
I would certainly have liked an explanation on this and maybe some mentioning in last Q cc some indication that this is coming.
EU rev ramp will be slow until final pricing agreements are achieved. Some countries allow sales with preliminary pricing, some allow imports before (France), some will only start once final pricing is agreed, some need special assessment that drug meets price-target per quality adjusted lifespan (death panels anyone?; this would be the UK).
Until this is all figured out (1Q 2015 for all 16 targeted countries), rev increase will be slow.
Potential label change in EU and delay of the PRAC process by 2 months was certainly a disappointment (and again a little bit less optimism in the past 3 months would have certainly sounded more reasonable).
But I also think that there is still a lot of hesitation to get back into the stock for a lot of investors. And there are a lot of shorts who are betting on a DNDN like withering away of Iclusiq. Meeting or exceeding sales targets for another 2,3,4 quarters will bring some confidence back over time and will lead to a slow recovery of share price in 2H´14 if it can be achieved (even without major news). The key word here are SLOW and IF.
I remain confident that we can get to $85M is 2014 (maybe even slightly higher (US 4.7M/10M/14.5M/21.5M(price adjustment in E3Q)=50.7M, EU 5.1M(inc FR)/6M/7M/8M = 26.1M, FR deferred 12M => ~88M). This together with normal progress in GIST, ´113, new molecule should get us a decent return in 2013 (decent for me would be 30% or 40% based on $6.8/share at beginning of the year).
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