Replies to post #27382 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[jessellivermore]

HD...

Thnx for your many informative posts.

I believe you and chica are comparing apples and... The wholesale price is what chica states, about $195/120caps. I believe what you are talking about is how much of this money ends up in Amarin's pocket...which is less than $150 dollars for 120 V 1 gm caps the company would like to see. due to higher cost of producing purified EPA in low volume demand, new production facilities not on line, plus "give away" promotions such as their co pay cards.

The company's main issues are financial. It is true their fate will depend on the REDUCE-IT results, but if that doesn't come in then all the longs are dead and the story ends. The biggest problem with the finacial picture is the Pharma loan. Basically AMRN must pay off almost $150 mil in the next 3 years. There long term debt costs are about $39 mil this year, $46 mil next year and $66 mil in 2016.

AMRN entered 2014 with $219mil in the bank..Q1 burn is $27.5 mil.
and they expect to hold rest of the year to $52mil, ie $22 mil excluding debt service. That would mean going into 2015 with about $120 mil cash left.

They need to do three things.

1)Get drug sales up. If the company can see revenues of $100/120 caps (a script) then getting to 10k scrips a week would bring in $1 million/week or 50 million in revenue/year. I believe that is very doable.

2) Cut expenses to a minimum the directors and management should be on bread and water.

3) and finally..They need to find a partner with deep pockets who understands the inflammatory aspects of CV disease. I would suggest AZN..

":>) JL

[BioChica]

The label addition of Anchor, I remember one of he CC's awhile back mentioned it. But you are right, It would be nice to see the data included. I think this will be addressed by the courts. But like you said, this can take a lot of time.

Did you see my post about Astrazeneca lawyers trying to get the case dismissed, based on a couple of things. The main one, no approved drug. So how could there be a patent infringement? Also no label so no infringement. I hope the Judge does not fall for this legal mumbo jumbo.

P.S. I used wholesale price, for the vary reasons you mention. I believe this is the number they use for billing. My numbers will have error of course because not every script is 4 four gram dose. Discounts etc. But did not seem to far out. I set my proverbial carrot high though.

[sts66]

The higher up the food chain you go the less chance of the appeal succeeding IMO - lower level folks in the food chain are on the front lines, specialists for particular health problems (CV in our case), much more likely to keep up with changing medical opinions (not in our case). The higher up you go the more isolated people are from real medical practices - they are more like politicians than doctors, which would help BP, but not us - the higher up the FDA food chain, the more exposed they are to political pressure (lower levels largely immune except for internal pressure). No evidence that any politician has successfully prodded the FDA on the SPA or even cares, at least so far, but it's our only hope for reversing the decision.