Larry, make sure your stats go back prior to the year 2000, as bear market stuff has been failing on this run. I've thrown out a lot of stuff that's been ironclad in the bear, as it's become inoperative the past couple of months.
The first clue? Failure to drop 42-48% within 5-months of the Dec. high off a VIX reading . The 2nd? Failure of the Super Duper Dump-o-meter.
I'll remind you of the corollary by Dudash, there is a high probability that a trend will continue, but a certainty that a trend will reverse some time in the future...., currently, it is the first part of that corollary you are working on hoping for the second part to establish itself...