Larry, make sure your stats go back prior to the year 2000, as bear market stuff has been failing on this run. I've thrown out a lot of stuff that's been ironclad in the bear, as it's become inoperative the past couple of months.
The first clue? Failure to drop 42-48% within 5-months of the Dec. high off a VIX reading . The 2nd? Failure of the Super Duper Dump-o-meter.