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mschere

05/15/03 1:31 PM

#25823 RE: jaykayjones #25819

I guess some people were stimulated by IDCC having a P/E multiple of 56X.
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snowydread

05/15/03 1:56 PM

#25839 RE: jaykayjones #25819

"1. What was new in Tuesday's CC that caused the high volume and price jump? (we've known everything about the Ericy settlement since March 17 and E's funds were the reason for the Q1 profit)."

New High/Momentum buying + Short Covering + forced Short Covering? + Is it possible that some institutions that present themselves as primarily concerned with fundamentals were prevented by their guidelines from buying ID until the earnings came into line with the Relative Strength of the price and began their buying?

"2. Why did the price jump when IDCC's comments about the NOK and Samsung situations were obviously more downbeat than on March 17? (It's a fact that IDCC is now in contract resolution mode with NOK with a possibility of arbitration out into 2004)."

Arbitration was mentioned At the conference call as a possibility, and I would suggest that the 4/1 SEC filing was much more downbeat than what we heard from Mr. Merritt....in the idle speculation section, there was the jagnotes rumor....we had one re: an Ericsson resolution 1/16...the price ran up, trial delayed, price ran down, but my guess for my own entertainment is that there was something to that
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=762700

3. In what way has IDCC's management exceeded our expectations over the past two years? (I'm referring to specific management goals like new licenses, amounts achieved in litigation/legal disputes, open disclosure about intended use of the new options, how they are dealing with the indemnification issue that's said to be blocking new 3G licenses?)

I bought in the 8's. I am very pleased with the progress the company has made in the last 2 years, and feel that if company managment is forced to pay undue attention to the day to day concerns of the shareholder base, that avenue will be used against the company. I would not board an airplane flight if i felt the pilot needed my input to get us home safely.
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JimLur

05/15/03 1:57 PM

#25840 RE: jaykayjones #25819

Jaykay, Supply and demand it is and institutions now own over 17 million shares as of 3/31 so the supply is decreasing every day. I would imagine many of them seeing the 1st quarter are adding and those who don't own are starting positions.

Let's give this thing a few weeks and we may see more value after the PJ presentation yesterday.
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Dishfan

05/15/03 2:11 PM

#25844 RE: jaykayjones #25819

JKJ - the conference call was powerful IMO

They gave us a lot to look forward to and told us the wait wouldn't be too long.

Examples (my bold):

Merritt: "I am confident we will expand our licensing base this year. Let me explain why. Rich and Howard have both said it, but it bears repeating. We have momentum, and I can tell you from years of licensing, momentum is very important. Putting aside all the technical and legal factors, prospective licensees are far more likely to enter into a license if they see others licensing with you. They are also more likely to agree to license if they know you have the financial strength and determination to pursue the matter through to conclusion. We have all those factors on our side, and they are very important in the current market. As we all know, there are many financially challenged companies out there. A financially challenged company is more likely to try to delay the resolution of a licensing obligation than deal with it, and this environment can be a significant problem for patent holders who are new to licensing. We are not in that category. The fact that we have licensed a significant portion of the 2G market and have a reputation as a determined licensing organization, makes a big difference. Companies know that they have to deal with us."

More Merritt: "The current market holds other opportunities. Over the recent past, a number of companies patented excellent wireless telecom inventions and built proprietary know-how positions but these companies have failed to their investment. They are either in stressed financial condition or in need of assistance to maximize the return on that you their technology investment. Seeing this trend about a year ago, we made the decision to expand our licensing efforts to include the opportunistic acquisition of intellectual property assets. We see an opportunity to use this period of market downturn for concluding license agreements can be more difficult to broaden, deepen, extend, and diversify our patent portfolio."

More Merritt: "We held patents in all the 3G standards, these acquisitions deepened our coverage.. These acquisitions also provided us with a value added offering in the form of smart antennae technology which could be critical to, among other things, the optimized deployment of 3G. This creates a win-win situation for the licensee and for InterDigital. We continue to be involved in a number of other IPR acquisition discussions and it's our desire to conclude additional acquisitions this year..."

More Merritt: "In many cases companies have sought us out to assist them in fully monetizing their IPR investment. That did so based in our industry reputation and success it's nice to hear that recognition as it validates our hard work in building a strong licensing presence over the years. It also points to an important factor that will differentiate InterDigital from others as 3G licensing moves into full swing."

Last Merritt: "In summary, we are good at what we do. And unlike others that are just now attempting to enter into patent licensing, we've been doing it for a long time. These are the types of things, like momentum, that have contributed to our success and will help us create even greater successes in the future."

From Howard: "This year at the 3G congress in February, we distinguished ourselves by demonstrating with 100% uptime reliability complete standards-compliant WCDMA terminal platform solutions for the third generation wireless market. Our FDD and TDD technology platforms accomplished an industry first by transmitting and receiving live video at an impressive 384 K kilobits per second. Our demonstration of a complete WCDMA solution certainly stood above our competitors displaying at the time."

More Howard: "At the same time, we were very pleased with the positive reaction to our TDD products at the show. During the 3GSM event we met almost nonstop with operators and manufacturers. They are realizing the competitive cost and revenue benefits created by deploying UMTS standards-compliant TDD technology."

Nice exchange:

BILL MERRITT: I don't see people that are unlicensed waiting for the Nokia and Samsung issues to resolve. That issue is defining a payment; it's not a question of whether they're licensed or not. They are licensed. It is just a question of defining those payments.

TOM CARPENTER: That's what I meant more, to see how the royalty rate shakes out.

BILL MERRITT: I don't see that. You know, frankly, the press release that we put out with respect to the projected revenues is helpful because it gives people a feel for what we feel the big guys would pay, and it's helpful in our negotiations because the rates we offer them, people can see, how do they match up those? I see it all as very positive, getting those deals done, getting visibility for the things. As I said we have very good momentum and I see it every day.

Another:

MIKE WALKLY: Okay. Great. A follow-up question. You mentioned a couple of times this morning cdma2000. Could you mention more on the royalties or does this mean crossing some of our other key technology areas?

BILL MERRITT: We see it as a good opportunity on the same lines as FDD, and other things. There will be healthy deployment of CDMA2000 There already has been. We believe we have a solid patent position. So we anticipate we will be able to derive some good revenues off of those products.

More on cdma2000:

JOHN BUCHER: And final question, do you expect that you'll sign up a top-tier handset manufacturer for CD-made 2000, 1-X in calendar year 2003?

BILL MERRITT: John, we intend to expand the licensing base in 2003, and those are a focus of our licensing efforts. Whether those are the ones that come in 2003, I can't predict that. But I can tell you that is one of our main focus.




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Danny Detail

05/15/03 3:37 PM

#25868 RE: jaykayjones #25819

JKJ .. It is also about perceptions .. That is a very difficult thing to quantify .. but they can play a big role in stock price movement. I can't speak for anyone else but as I listened to the CC I just got more and more confident that the IDCC management team has turned the corner and are on a winning streak where they will actually begin consistently delivering in amount and time close to what they promise from this point forward. Perhaps others listening to the CC had a similar reaction. Might it have been an overreaction to the fine job Merritt did as Loop has suggested as a possibility? Sure and only time will tell. But if a significant number of investors listening to the CC had a similar reaction to mine that would increase the demand of buyers, decrease the supply of sellers and give rise to a significant stock price increase. Nothing earth shattering about that.

It is one thing to read the transcript of the CC IMO and quite another to listen to it. Hearing how something is delivered often has as much if not more effect on investor confidence or lack thereof as the words being spoken. Actually watching the body language when it being said adds yet another level of perception. Observing management in an informal, one-on-one setting presents the ultimate perception opportunity. Everyone who has been to an ASM can attest to that I expect. I have said it several times before. One of the primary reasons that institutions rely on sell-side analysts is that they have frequent opportunities to actually meet members of management and engage and observe them in one-on-one conversations. I would expect that both of ours, for instance, had already met and spoken with Merritt on one or more occassions before the CC. It is not that sell-side analysts get information we don't .. that is a clear cut FD violation .. it is that they get a more informed chance to form an opinion as to where the weak and strong links are in the management group, how they interact with each other and how relatively strong or weak they are when viewed as a team. Bottom line .. can they get the job done or can't they? That is invariably a judgment call and one that is typically improved in accuracy the closer one gets to being able to observe the individuals in action. Sell side analysts whose perceptions of management turn out to be true more often than not can be invaluable to institutional investors.

Regards,
Danny