Replies to post #8311 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

VALE’s CEO re-iterated his opinion that $110 per metric ton is a floor for the next several years. This is not to say that the spot price of iron ore can’t drop below $110 briefly, but it can’t stay that low for a period as long as a quarter, according to VALE.

[biotech_researcher]

Dew, who should we believe, the Vale CEO or Goldman?

"Supply growth will overtake demand growth this year for the first time in a long time,” said Christian Lelong, a Sydney-based commodity analyst with Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which predicts prices to average $108 this year and slide to $80 in 2015. “You will start to see some signs of surplus probably during the course of the second quarter.”

Classic supply-demand. More capacity has to come out of the world before this stops.

[biotech_researcher]

And, on the demand side (China's imports dropped a more than expected 11% in March):

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-09/china-exports-unexpectedly-fell-in-march.html