How To Find Big Stocks

[petemantx]

I enjoy this type of discussion to see how different posters view the big 2 stocks.

XXII

If BTI offered 1 for 2 today, I am sure most investors would jump all over it; couldn't fault them in the least as it would have surpassed all the targets HTFBS sets for it's picks as it would be a 100 bagger or so. Based on 55MM shares outstanding and BTI @ $104 (approx) that would be about $52/share for a total buyout cost of approx $ 2.86 Billion. I understand almost nobody would say that is a bad deal, but IMO BTI is stealing XXII at that price.

*** My major belief is that if Brand B can compete with every light cigarette in the world today as to taste and enjoyment and cut tar and carcinogens by 80% and the light cigarette market is the major factor in the $700B worldwide market, then why shouldn't we expect Brand B (or other products licensing our IP to have comparable tar/carcinogen numbers)to take AT LEAST 50% of the worldwide market? People are going to think the 50% number is crazy, but is it for a valid reason or just that it seems too good to be true. IMO this is what a "disruptive" technology should be able to cause to happen, not some piddly 2-4% market capture.***

Guess everything goes back to whether our IP is truly going to be disruptive in the market and what percentage of that market it will be able to capture, how long it will take for our IP/products to enter the market so we get sales revenue or royalty revenues from other manufacturers who license our IP, how quickly and effectively we are able to monetize our plant genetics IP, Verbola, X-22, and premium line of cigarettes.

Mgt expects a $1B market cap within 3-5 years if I remember correctly a statement last Fall from our Pres. Our operations should cause XXII to be a revenue cash cow. We have no debt, very tight reins on facilities and employees, no engineering dept to speak of as we outsource our research, etc. All of the above makes XXII far and away more attractive than Big Tobacco buying a company with lots of baggage.

Now take all of the above factors and I say $2.86B is a steal unless our IP falls far and away short of making the impression on the world market we have all been led to believe it will.

Pretty hard to turn down $2.86B, but if mgt does it would show how much they believe the real value is far and away above that level.

The proposed buyout would set me to do as I wish for the rest of my life. XXII becoming another Phillip Morris would set my descendants for life.