Today should prove interesting if nothing else. The drama unfolds...
Hard to predict price movement now (not that it's ever easy). We're in unfamiliar market cap territory. And as much as I respect Larry Smith, I disagree with certain points he stressed. I'm all for a conservative view, as expectation is the root of all sorrow. But I feel his was almost sheepish. He used only German GBM new cases and a lower-end price of $50k, although giving a range of up to $100k. I'm fine with the latter, but not the former. A range would be better there as well. I do not see how every glioma in Germany doesn't find their way to this treatment. I'll be eyeing German news outlets for any release of this breakthrough. I'm sure most everyone diagnosed with GBM discovers DCVax within the first week of researching treatment options. And I have to believe those diagnosed with other gliomas do too. Current cases, plus 7,000 new a year, puts Germany alone at at least 14,000 cases. Then let's assume just 5% of the developed world's currently diagnosed gliomas find a way to receive treatment from NW within the next six months. That's at least 10,000 more cases (being conservative both ways--in estimating cases worldwide and in assuming the just 5% that could afford DCVax). And so I DO think saying 20,000-24,000 patients a year is low balling. I don't see why, when considering currently diagnosed cases AND newly diagnosed cases, that that number cannot climb to over 50,000 a year. And as they live longer, and need DCVax to do so, these numbers should grow each year (another point not addressed). The only snag I see is in the time it may take to fully implement treating this many patients. But I have to believe, when considering the severity of the disease, that it won't take longer than six months to be up and running and have many of the kinks worked out. Obviously that's just my opinion. But all of this is why I say $1B in sales over at least 2015 is being conservative. $2-3B is being optimistic. $7-10B is being deluded (unless we're talking 2018 and L is treating multiple cancers and Direct has been fast tracked. Then it's at least within the realm of possibility). But let's not get crazy... Right now, considering only the fantastic advancement recently made, a $2B market cap appears in the making, although still speculative. A $1B market cap, however, appears immediately justified. Let's see if the market comes to agree with that assessment over the next month or so.
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