Larry's Market Comments at Critical Points

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keynote:
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Posted by: Tom K
In reply to: profit_guy who wrote msg# 2340 Date:5/4/2003 6:18:11 PM
Post #of 2342

profit_guy - I have no idea.

Personally I don't believe anybody can "predict" markets - future direction, duration, or price level. However, I believe TA works - by identifying CURRENT RISK, nothing more. A good trader is like a Blackjack card counter with good money management skills. Can a card counter "predict" the next card he'll be dealt? The next hand? The next several hands? Nope. A card counter can't "predict" anything, but can absolutely tell you the odds that he'll get the card he needs whereby he bets or folds accordingly. That's what a good trader does.

Streaks and the occasional "great call" have a way of making us believe we can actually predict the market...at least most of the time. I do everything possible to avoid this delusion -I think it's dangerous.