Friday, December 20, 2013 7:15:23 PM
great stuff... definitely better to ride the elephants when you are able... great interview... thanks for posting...
i posted an overly simple valuation of SPIHF earlier today... now let me do a better one...
let's dream relatively small for a moment and imagine SPIHF captures only 1% of the 100 billion dollar cloud market... 1 billion in gross revenue...
VMWare currently has net profit margin of 17.63% according to Scottrade... and a P/E ratio of 40+... i'll use 15% and 30 to stay on the conservative side...
15% of 1B equals 150 million in profit...
30:1 p/e equals market cap of 4.5 billion...
let's go with 25 million fully diluted shares... i think that may be a bit high in terms of current share structure...
4.5 B / 25 M = 180 pps
on gross sales of 1 billion we might expect a share price of $180... simply ridiculous... glta
i posted an overly simple valuation of SPIHF earlier today... now let me do a better one...
let's dream relatively small for a moment and imagine SPIHF captures only 1% of the 100 billion dollar cloud market... 1 billion in gross revenue...
VMWare currently has net profit margin of 17.63% according to Scottrade... and a P/E ratio of 40+... i'll use 15% and 30 to stay on the conservative side...
15% of 1B equals 150 million in profit...
30:1 p/e equals market cap of 4.5 billion...
let's go with 25 million fully diluted shares... i think that may be a bit high in terms of current share structure...
4.5 B / 25 M = 180 pps
on gross sales of 1 billion we might expect a share price of $180... simply ridiculous... glta
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