"What makes you think that Intel *can't* take back MS in q2,3,4?"
They don't have much in Q2 to take MS back with, except for what little they lost in the notebook market, and most of those losses were in the under $800 market. What new can Intel offer there? Or do you think that Apple is just going to suddenly sweep out of their niche?
In Q3 and Q4 their volume will still be low and they will be fighting market momemetum. The OEMs, who are the real customers, don't really care about the bonuses and commissions of the sales people. Why do you think that is an issue? They are concerned with their profitability and what they can sell and what price. Given that AMD is well established at this point with the public, Intel isn't the automatic win that they used to be. I'll grant you that Intel can probably stop MS erosion in those quarters. They might be able to reverse that next year, assuming AMD does nothing over the next 12 months.