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DewDiligence

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DewDiligence

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Re: DewDiligence post# 7686

Sunday, 11/17/2013 1:45:33 PM

Sunday, November 17, 2013 1:45:33 PM

Post# of 29487
Quantifying China’s 1-child policy (and the recently announced policy change):

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303559504579200330430137474

…1.45 [to] 1.66. Those are the low and high ends of the range for the three estimates of China's current total fertility rate—an estimate of how many children the average woman has in her lifetime.

After the policy change described in #msg-94089270, the number of children per family will clearly increase, although it’s unclear to what extent.

Estimates I’ve seen call for the annual birth rate to increase 7-13%, which equates to 1-2B additional births per year.

“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”

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