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Re: 10 bagger post# 136

Monday, 07/29/2013 10:24:17 AM

Monday, July 29, 2013 10:24:17 AM

Post# of 223
Can I ask how you are running your valuation to say it is fully valued?

I posted this before:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=89246332

Friday fun with numbers:

- $800 MM in assets
- median ROA% for North Dakota Q1 2013 = 1.03%

source: http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/stateprofile/Kansascity/ND/ND.pdf

800MM * 1.03% = $10.4 MM

10X earnings multiple = $104 MM or ~ $31.50 per share potential

They just have to keep on performing.



I was pretty close on the assets number, and let's assume the ROA% sits around 1%. Now if we triangulate between a 10X earnings multiple at approximately $30 per share and and 1.5X BV multiple(a fair multiple for growth I believe) at the low $20's, we get a combined mid-$20's valuation or a half off sale currently.

Do you believe non-interest income will take a hit? Growth will stop in the Bakken? Competition from larger players? Just curious, TIA.

-Pagz

FD: ~10% holding

Twitter: @VincePagano