I thought that I would write a note about WHY I am still a proponent of a major stock price increase in AMRN - not for its immediate price change but looking out over the next year. I have a substantial position, am down presently and cannot see selling any at the current pps. I have a reasonable understanding of the arguments about whether or not management made strategic mistakes, etc. and don’t necessarily disagree with some of the arguments presented. However, once the immediate uncertainties and trading issues have run their courses, I think that the following holds true.
1. The Product:
a. Best treatment option on the market for now and at least foreseeable future. No increase in LDL-C, reduces anti-inflammatory markers, no afib warnings, no side effects of note (tasteless, burpless). AZN's product more like Lovaza and generics have the aforementioned side effects of Lovaza. Niacin is difficult to take and no impact on (at least) mortality. CLEARLY the best and this will become increasingly known over the next year.
b. NO competition for the high TG market. Lovaza scripts now Off Label will convert to V once Anchor approved. Market won't be 10x Marine, but should be at least 2 to 3 x Marine.
c. Once some major anti-inflammatory studies have been done, some major new markets may open (within 5+ years).
2. Catalysts:
a. Within the year - AdCom, pdufa
b. By 2016 Reduce-IT will be out and VERY HIGH likelihood of CLINICALLY SIGNIFICANT reductions in ALL cardiovascular events (MI, stroke, death)
c. Advent of major DTC advertising (hopefully in early 2014) and increasing stories in lay press of benefits of V. Lovaza users increasingly will ask MDs to switch them.
3. Partnership, Buy Out or other:
a. Big pharma certainly interested (witness AZN's purchase of inferior product). Issue is PRICE OF COMPANY, NOT INTEREST.
b. BEFORE approvals of Marine and Anchor, patent approvals, etc. price was in high teens. Price currently has NOTHING to do with fundamental value. It is money making strategy of TRADERS manipulating for repeated short-term gains (shorts, hedge funds, etc.). General investing population, most MDs, general population knows nothing of the product or the company. Once Anchor approval and move to general advertising, word WILL spread quickly and scripts increase dramatically (throughout 2014). If no buyout by then, pps VERY MUCH HIGHER (I won't speculate how high although I have my thoughts). Buy out will come no later, IMO, than early 2015 - and likely sooner. IF NO B.O. the script and balance sheet factors MAY result in further attempts to raise capital and "go it alone". Might be even better for stock price in the longer run. I don't know, but I think it is possible.
IN SUMMARY: Basic factors that ALWAYS have exist continue to do so - and EVEN MORE SO. TIME TABLE AND ASSOCIATED EXPECTATIONS HAVE CHANGED FROM VERY SHORT RUN TO SOMEWHAT LONGER TERM TO TODAY'S VIEW. However, for purposes of longer term investment, etc., this remains not just "hopeful" but, IMO a near certainty
I do not believe that I am living in a "dream world", foolish, delusional or spouting nonsense. I have tried to lay out the basic case above. It makes sense to me as an investor, someone who knows a little about market ups and downs, a physician (from both the clinical issues and issues about how long it takes to get a product to be accepted within the prescriber and lay communities) and a lay person interested in cardiovascular issues. ZBD.
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