AI
Monday, December 19, 2005 3:42:39 PM
What if AOL is spun off with GOOG still holding? http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8939524
Comments:
Interesting thought process. And not far fetched, IMHO. I guess they could still get "bought" vs. an IPO, but the question is "by whom?" The GOOG relationship diminishes the value for any other obvious buyer (e.g. YHOO conceivably cut out from installing Overture, likewise MSN with their Search). Maybe IACI would take a run if they were willing to forego Ask powering AOL search (a reasonable assumption, certainly now, for them to get any deal done). An IPO would almost certainly be at much higher multiples, but in any case GOOG wins. Not a bad bet, John.
- Stuart Posted by: Stuart MacDonald at December 18, 2005 02:44 PM | Comment Permalink
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John,
You're spot on. I made the point that we very well could be seeing an AOL IPO, Part Deux in the offing. While I don't think GOOG had an AOL IPO in mind [or at least not as a driving factor in the AOL stake], I DO think Time Warner had the $20 billion post-money valuation in mind when they agreed to the $1 billion from Google in exchange for 5%.
You may have seen my post directly or on tech.meme, but if not...
http://woodrow.typepad.com/the_ponderings_of_woodrow/2005/12/aol_ipo_part_de.html
Posted by: Jason Wood at December 18, 2005 07:15 PM
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AOL 60 billion post-IPO !!! Good grief !
I would base the value of AOL on 2 facts. Current earnings and the expected growth in earnings over the next 2 years. Is this data too confidential to be blogged.
Posted by: Rajesh Patil at December 19, 2005 12:14 AM
60 billion? You are crazy.
As Rajesh says we need to know the earnings an expected growth in earnings to value AOL. With actual earnings of 1-2 billion $ and an annual earnings growth of 20% I could accept 60 billion $.
Posted by: Jojo at December 19, 2005 06:03 AM
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John - I agree with your post for the most part, but there are two other reasons why Google would invest: to protect revenue and keep Microsoft at bay. Both of those are just as important as the value of the investment increasing at this point.
Posted by: Damian at December 19, 2005 08:06 AM
http://battellemedia.com/archives/002137.php#comments
Comments:
Interesting thought process. And not far fetched, IMHO. I guess they could still get "bought" vs. an IPO, but the question is "by whom?" The GOOG relationship diminishes the value for any other obvious buyer (e.g. YHOO conceivably cut out from installing Overture, likewise MSN with their Search). Maybe IACI would take a run if they were willing to forego Ask powering AOL search (a reasonable assumption, certainly now, for them to get any deal done). An IPO would almost certainly be at much higher multiples, but in any case GOOG wins. Not a bad bet, John.
- Stuart Posted by: Stuart MacDonald at December 18, 2005 02:44 PM | Comment Permalink
----------------------------
John,
You're spot on. I made the point that we very well could be seeing an AOL IPO, Part Deux in the offing. While I don't think GOOG had an AOL IPO in mind [or at least not as a driving factor in the AOL stake], I DO think Time Warner had the $20 billion post-money valuation in mind when they agreed to the $1 billion from Google in exchange for 5%.
You may have seen my post directly or on tech.meme, but if not...
http://woodrow.typepad.com/the_ponderings_of_woodrow/2005/12/aol_ipo_part_de.html
Posted by: Jason Wood at December 18, 2005 07:15 PM
-----------------------------------
AOL 60 billion post-IPO !!! Good grief !
I would base the value of AOL on 2 facts. Current earnings and the expected growth in earnings over the next 2 years. Is this data too confidential to be blogged.
Posted by: Rajesh Patil at December 19, 2005 12:14 AM
60 billion? You are crazy.
As Rajesh says we need to know the earnings an expected growth in earnings to value AOL. With actual earnings of 1-2 billion $ and an annual earnings growth of 20% I could accept 60 billion $. Posted by: Jojo at December 19, 2005 06:03 AM
-------------------------------------
John - I agree with your post for the most part, but there are two other reasons why Google would invest: to protect revenue and keep Microsoft at bay. Both of those are just as important as the value of the investment increasing at this point.
Posted by: Damian at December 19, 2005 08:06 AM
http://battellemedia.com/archives/002137.php#comments
