The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[OakesCS]

i didn't think the yahoo blurb you posted was that bad except for 2 pts: 1. the common mistake of mixing up the shale gas boom with greater domestic oil production 2. the speculation that 'alternative' energy sources would become a major electrical power supplier. Regarding the 1st point i'd bet the Bakken makes up most of the increase in US oil production (again, this is something DOE would have tabulated on their web site).

The WSJ has an op ed this weekend which addresses your most recent questions:

Jenkins: Why the Energy Mopes Are Wrong
America's fossil-fuel boom is not a curse upon the world
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324266904578460910324343072.html?mod=hp_opinion

America will be energy independent by 2020. Look out, world.

The first prediction comes from the Paris-based International Energy Agency and other prognosticators. The second comes from us.

At least that's how we interpret a flurry of warnings from foreign-policy experts and various op-eds about alleged downsides to America's energy boom (see the May cover story in the Atlantic). The method of these jeremiads is straightforward: Take the assumptions of U.S. energy rhetoric since the 1970s and turn them on their head.

Oil prices will collapse. Because of shale energy and other drilling breakthroughs, chaos will ensue in the Middle East and other unstable petro-regions. The U.S., no longer needing to secure its oil sources, will either withdraw from the world or—take your pick—feel free to throw its military weight around recklessly.

These alarms are as questionable as the inverted Carter-era premises on which they are based. First, energy prices are likely to carry on pretty much as before....

they point out that adjust to 2006 dollars, gasoline has stayed between $2 and $4/gallon since 1913.

fools and the naive like to gripe about the price of oil and oil company profits but they're griping about the wrong thing (Of course, con-folk like Carter, Pelosi, and Obama also like to gripe about oil company profits but no need to expand on that...). I'm confident that oil and toilet paper companies will continue to keep pace with inflation. Conversely, solar panel related companies are are over-crowding the grave yards in spite of the huge tax-payer subsidies thrown at them.