The Black Box

[LG]

wahz: When using technical analysis everyone must keep in mind the best it can to is provide probabilities. As one learns to use technical analysis well, one will learn that some techniques, indicators, patterns etc., work better than others so the probabilities are higher. Combining high probability indicators and techniques can increase the likely hood of an out come even more, but they can never provide a certainty.

I am amazed at some of the analysis I read online by self styled gurus or wannabe gurus stating with a certainty of outcomes based on their analysis. If this indicator or price pattern does occur or does not occur, the price action will do this or not do that. When I read this kind of bullshit I cringe, I know I am reading an amateur.

Anyone that has been doing this for years and has been putting his or her money at risk at the same time, damn well knows there are ONLY PROBABILITIES with this stuff we use no matter how good one thinks his or her BAG OF TECHNIQUES is.

Regards,
LG