Marius Kloppers (the outgoing CEO of BHP) said on BHP’s FY1H13 CC yesterday that normalized growth in Chinese demand for iron ore will be ~60M tonnes per annum for the next several years, but 100M tonnes of new annual capacity are coming online by late 2013. Putting it all together, Kloppers expects a price decline in the second half of calendar 2013 followed by a resumption of steady price growth from a lower base.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”