Biotech Values

[biomaven0]

peak annual sales potential of $500M

That's probably higher than I would have guessed given that insurers will likely be cautious covering this drug. The key from a valuation perspective though is that this will be like a biologic - likely still delivering good sales two decades from now as there might never be a generic.

One issue on peak sales is that it likely gets a black box warning - the injectable and nasal forms of DHE both have this, related to possible drug/drug interactions:

Peripheral Ischemia
serious and/or life-threatening peripheral ischemia possible when given in combo w/ potent 3A4 inhibitors incl. protease inhibitors and macrolide antibiotics; 3A4 inhibition incr. drug serum levels and incr. risk for vasospasm leading to cerebral ischemia and/or ischemia of extremities; concomitant use contraindicated

There also have been a few cardiac events associated with the injectable form (also on the label of the nasal spray).

My point here is mostly that this sort of warning might reduce use among some PCP's, at least for the first few years.

Peter