Thursday, December 27, 2012 12:54:44 PM
I think there is a reasonable opportunity in VRNG for the future but the hype machine is still way too strong. Expectations need to be flushed and realigned with reality. Until that time comes I am personally staying away and advising investors personally to stay away.
It has been sound advice as the bullish posters thought VRNG was a slam dunk buy at $5 and have been posting so at every .10 interval down since.
VRNG at $2.80 is a terrible buy for the risk/reward scenario that is present today.
My thesis is based off the $15-$20M that JJ is likely going to award VRNG per year for the remainder of the patent lives, which Google will eventually settle for under $70M at a slight discount for paying the money upfront. The hundreds of millions is a pumper illusion that has sucked in 100s if not 1000s of retail investors into believing. It is extremely unlikely the hundreds of millions is entered into judgment and if it does, Google will drag the process out in appeals for 2 years and the same holding pattern will be present in VRNG. How many of you thought this was a quick 100% flip and you would be buying nice Christmas presents with the easy dollars that were promised on various blogs and SA articles? Now most of you are long term investors or are sitting on a big fat loss that you are trying to recoup on hail mary motions filed by VRNG.
The $70M will be excellent from an execution standpoint for management and they will be able to acquire additional assets with the money to win more awards. VRNG will be a much more attractive investment as the proof of concept will be there for a long term investment in a successful NPE. Retail investors who don't have the patience or the understanding how a NPE functions will take the PPS to the woodshed as they liquidate their pie in the sky dream.
I am not trying to get anyone to buy or sell. I am trying to provide an outside voice to the subjects with a lot of experience behind it. Could I be wrong? Maybe. Could I be right? Its possible. Not considering my point of view could be very bad for your portfolio if the events play out as I suspect they will.
It has been sound advice as the bullish posters thought VRNG was a slam dunk buy at $5 and have been posting so at every .10 interval down since.
VRNG at $2.80 is a terrible buy for the risk/reward scenario that is present today.
My thesis is based off the $15-$20M that JJ is likely going to award VRNG per year for the remainder of the patent lives, which Google will eventually settle for under $70M at a slight discount for paying the money upfront. The hundreds of millions is a pumper illusion that has sucked in 100s if not 1000s of retail investors into believing. It is extremely unlikely the hundreds of millions is entered into judgment and if it does, Google will drag the process out in appeals for 2 years and the same holding pattern will be present in VRNG. How many of you thought this was a quick 100% flip and you would be buying nice Christmas presents with the easy dollars that were promised on various blogs and SA articles? Now most of you are long term investors or are sitting on a big fat loss that you are trying to recoup on hail mary motions filed by VRNG.
The $70M will be excellent from an execution standpoint for management and they will be able to acquire additional assets with the money to win more awards. VRNG will be a much more attractive investment as the proof of concept will be there for a long term investment in a successful NPE. Retail investors who don't have the patience or the understanding how a NPE functions will take the PPS to the woodshed as they liquidate their pie in the sky dream.
I am not trying to get anyone to buy or sell. I am trying to provide an outside voice to the subjects with a lot of experience behind it. Could I be wrong? Maybe. Could I be right? Its possible. Not considering my point of view could be very bad for your portfolio if the events play out as I suspect they will.
