>>…something along these lines - but how to use the number? As a multiplier to applied to the PII p-value to predict the PIII p-value? Or maybe the desperation index just gives you the percent probability that the PIII trial is a total flop?<<
There’s a potential PhD thesis there, and I’m at least half serious.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”