Biotech Values

[zebra4o1]

Program-survival bias

We should come up with a 'Desperation Index' which could be used to discount PII results of small biotechs.

10 points for the drug candidate being the only clinical program of the company.

10 points for no past approved NDA's

10 points for less than 6 months cash left

10 points for having a sleaze bag CEO

10 points for too many BS hyper-promotional news releases.

O.K. something along these lines - but how to use the number? As a multiplier to applied to the PII p-value to predict the PIII p-value? Or maybe the deseperation index just gives you the percent probability that the PIII trial is a total flop?